Identifying the geological factors that lead to exploration success, and failure, across the South Atlantic.
Since 2007, the oil industry has spent more than $30bn drilling 425 wells exploring post-rift Cretaceous plays across the South Atlantic, finding an estimated 49bnboe at a commercial success rate of 19%.
Activity across the South Atlantic margins is accelerating again with several recent discoveries and new acreage being taken up. Major companies are repositioning, and interest is returning in both proven and frontier basins. Significant risks remain however, across all play elements along the margins.
This study provides the definitive, data backed insights of what drives exploration success and failure across the South Atlantic’s Equatorial, Central and Austral segments, based on:
- Over 400 exploration wells drilled 2007-2025 targeting post-rift Cretaceous stratigraphy
- Detailed analysis of over 20 basins and 80 geological plays
- Well data from Westwood’s Wildcat, paleobathymetry and crustal domains from Getech
- Integration of geological data, exploration well results, and public domain technical papers
For any explorer seeking to improve exploration drilling results, polarise risk, and shorten evaluation time, this study is the most comprehensive synthesis available today.
Why Does This Study Matter?
If you are already exploring in the region:
- Understand where your acreage sits compared to your peers
- Understand why analogous plays have succeeded or failed across the margins
- Apply lessons learned to high grade prospectivity and reduce cycle times
If you are thinking about entering the South Atlantic:
- Rapidly build regional understanding without months of evaluation
- Identify which basins genuinely offer low-risk exploration opportunities
- Understand the key geological factors that materially affect commerciality
What Does This Study Answer?
- How have success rates varied across the margins?
- Where have most commercial discoveries been made?
- How does the tectonic setting impact performance?
This study provides the first integrated analysis that identifies the real drivers of performance, enabling companies to avoid mistakes made by others and focus on the geological settings that consistently deliver commercial discoveries.
How Is This Study Built?
A. Segment level insights that show where value is truly created
- Central Segment — dominant in resource volumes, driven by the prolific pre salt carbonate plays
- Equatorial Segment — poorest performing, but with recent success in the African transform margin and upcoming high impact tests in Brazil
- Austral Segment — success on parts of the African margin, but will it extend northwards and across to South America?
B. Basin by basin technical breakdowns (~20 basins)
Each basin includes:
- Geological overview
- Play elements and key risks
- Discovery size distributions
- Exploration Technical and Commercial Success rates
- Water depth, crustal domain, trap type, depositional environment
C. A full synthesis of exploration performance (2007–2025)
Key takeaways include:
- Technical success rates are high across the margin
- Commercial success is constrained by a small number of critical geological factors
- Discovery sizes vary dramatically by crustal domain, slope type, reservoir age and margin architecture
The Seven Key Factors Controlling Exploration Outcomes
These are the “must have” insights every operator should use in screening and prospect maturation:
- Source Rock Effectiveness
- Crustal Domain & Structural Positioning
- Kinematic Style of the Margin
- Depositional Slope Type
- Paleo Slope Angle
- Distance from Paleo Coastline
- Reservoir Provenance
This study shows quantitatively which combinations of these conditions produce commercial outcomes and which consistently do not.
What This Means For You
For exploration teams:
- Immediate ranking of basins and plays by commercial potential
- Reduction in screening time for new acreage
- Faster, better informed decisions on bid rounds and farm-ins
For leadership and strategy teams:
- Evidence based insight into where future value lies
- Understanding of competitor activity and historic trends
- Clear rationale for portfolio expansion or divestment
For geoscientists:
- Deep technical detail backed by datasets, maps and examples
- Ability to calibrate in-house models using real drilling outcomes
- Identification of geological sweet spots and high-risk settings
Request Information
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