Global offshore field development capex is forecast to reach US$137 billion in 2026 as operators double down on long-cycle projects.
Despite geopolitical disruption and oil price volatility, operators have remained committed to long-cycle offshore developments, particularly deepwater and floating platform projects. Although contracting activity started slowly in early 2026, both the floating production systems (FPS) and subsea markets strengthened materially in 2Q, signalling a clear acceleration in offshore award momentum heading into 2H 2026.
Westwood recorded 38 offshore field FIDs in 1H 2026, a 90% increase versus 1H 2025, with total committed offshore field development capex reaching US$66.4bn, more than three times the level recorded a year earlier. Within this, FPS EPC awards totalled approximately US$12.9bn across eight units, while subsea EPC awards reached US$5.6bn.
Westwood forecasts 2H 2026 to remain in a stronger investment cycle, with US$70.5bn in offshore oil and gas field development committed capex and more than US$30bn of additional FPS and subsea EPC awards expected over the same period. The key drivers remain energy security, competitive deepwater project economics and growing operator confidence in offshore resources as a reliable long-term supply source. However, a broader geographic spread of awards and improving supply chain performance suggests the current cycle is becoming more balanced, resilient and less dependent on a narrow group of regions or operators.
Field Development Cost Up 30%
Offshore field development capex in 2026 is estimated at US$137bn, up 30% from US$105.2bn in 2025. This includes drilling and completion costs, subsea and platform engineering, procurement, construction, installation and commissioning (EPCIC) work scopes, and other development-related expenditure such as project management, logistics, marine support and contingency. This increase points to a materially stronger offshore investment cycle, but more importantly is the improved cadence of spending.
Unlike 2025, when offshore capex was heavily weighted toward 2H, which represented 80% of annual committed investment, 2026 is more evenly distributed between US$66.4bn in 1H and US$70.5bn in 2H. This suggests a more sustained sanctioning environment rather than a concentrated year-end award cycle.
2025 Vs 2026 Offshore Field Development Capex by Region
Source: Westwood SubseaLogix & PlatformLogix
Regionally, the investment mix has also changed. In 2025, offshore oil and gas committed investment was led by the Middle East, supported by QatarEnergy, Saudi Aramco and TPAO, reflecting large-scale fixed platform developments and brownfield capacity expansion. The Middle East accounted for US$34.8bn, or roughly one-third of global capex. Latin America followed with US$23.5bn, while Asia contributed US$16.6bn.
In 2026, investment is significantly more diversified. Latin America has become the largest regional market at US$28.5bn, narrowly ahead of Asia and North America, each at US$26bn. Africa contributes US$23.3bn, while the Middle East falls to US$22.8bn. The softer Middle East profile in 1H 2026 reflects a more cautious sanctioning environment, partly influenced by geopolitical uncertainty linked to the US-Israel-Iran conflict, as well as the reallocation of global capital toward LNG-linked and deepwater floating developments. Major Middle East opportunities, including Durra, Maydan Mahzam and Umm Shaif Gas Cap, remain weighted toward 2H 2026 or later.
From a segment perspective, the clearest structural shift is the rise of floating platform EPC award value, increasing from US$15.6bn in 2025 to US$37.7bn in 2026. By contrast, drilling and completion spend declines from US$26.7bn to US$23.5bn, while fixed platform EPC also declines modestly from US$14.9bn to US$13.8bn, given project sanctioning delays in the Middle East. However, subsea equipment EPC remains broadly stable at US$17bn.
2026 Offshore Field Development Capex by Segment
Source: Westwood SubseaLogix & PlatformLogix
FPS Market Enters New Growth Phase
The FPS market rebounded strongly in 2Q 2026, compared to 1Q, with six major EPC awards valued at approximately US$11.4bn. These projects added more than 539kboepd of processing capacity and 4.4mtpa of FLNG capacity, highlighting the increasing role of floating infrastructure in both oil and gas development strategies.
Key awards included Petrobras’ P-81 and P-87 FPSOs, awarded to SBM Offshore under a build, operate and transfer (BOT) model, reinforcing Petrobras’ shift away from traditional lease-and-operate structures. Other notable awards included Delfin FLNG in the US Gulf, Azule Energy’s Greater PAJ offshore Angola, PTTEP’s Kikeh replacement FPSO unit offshore Malaysia and the Eni’s Cronos floating control unit (FCU) offshore Cyprus.
FPS EPC contracting activity is expected to strengthen further in 2H 2026, with 10 additional units forecast for sanction, representing approximately US$23.5bn in EPC value. In July 2026, Eni sanctioned the FPS unit for its Baleine Ph. 3 development offshore Ivory Coast, with Wison New Energies responsible for the EPC work scope, while offshore Indonesia, Searah, the Eni-Petronas joint venture, awarded Saipem the EPC scope for the Bahtera Haluan Lestari FPSO, to be deployed in the Kutei North Basin.
Other major FPS projects to watch in 2H include ExxonMobil’s Longtail project offshore Guyana, TotalEnergies’ Venus development offshore Namibia, Bahia Blanca LNG (Argentina), Ksi Lisims FLNG (Canada) and the Yoho FLNG unit offshore Nigeria.
Subsea Fundamentals Remain Strong
Subsea award activity lagged FPS in 1H 2026, but the underlying market remains fundamentally strong. Westwood recorded US$2.9bn of subsea EPC awards in 2Q 2026, up 7% quarter-on-quarter and 24% year-on-year. Full-year subsea EPC award value is forecast to reach US$17bn, underpinned by 283 subsea tree units, of which 123 units were awarded in 1H 2026. Demand for subsea umbilical, risers and flowline (SURF) in 2026 is forecast to total approximately 4,000km, a 32% YoY increase while demand for export line is estimated at 2,600km, a 47% YoY increase.
The softer 1H award profile appears timing-related rather than indicative of weaker demand. Several recently sanctioned developments, including Eni’s Baleine Ph 3, Cronos and Geng North, have yet to award major subsea packages. This supports expectations of a stronger 2H 2026 and reinforces confidence in subsea supply chain utilisation.
Offshore Momentum Broadens
Despite geopolitical headwinds delaying selected Middle East awards, the 2026 offshore market is exhibiting greater depth and resilience, supported by increased long-lead item expenditure, a wider pool of investing operators, and growing commitment to capital-intensive FLNG and deepwater projects. Market growth is becoming less regionally concentrated and increasingly driven by facility-led developments, particularly floating production systems. Subsea activity remains underpinned by a healthy sanctioned project pipeline, positioning the sector for an acceleration in contract awards through the second half of the year.
Mark Adeosun, Director – SubseaLogix & PlatformLogix
[email protected]
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Understanding where operators are investing, and why, is critical to identifying offshore growth opportunities. Westwood’s new Total Field Development Capex capability gives SubseaLogix and PlatformLogix subscribers a granular view of development spending across every sanctioned field from 2008 to 2030, helping users track regional shifts, compare project economics and interpret market momentum with greater confidence.
