The Assignment / Client’s Problem

  • Our Client, Antin wished the evaluate the current and future throughput in the Central Areas Transmission System (CATS). Westwood was engaged to provide an independent review on the amount of expected gas throughput into this North Sea pipeline which Antin would then use to support an investment case.
  • Westwood was required to provide Production Profiles for Current Production and Sanctioned/booked volumes (Base Case) and to forecast near-term-development production profiles providing a view on upside and potential timing

Westwood’s Approach & Analysis

  • Study based on Westwood’s proprietary UKCS fields, discoveries and prospects resources and reserves database
  • Provision of UK gas market overview, UK gas pricing dynamics, Central North Sea (CNS) prospectivity and expected future drilling activity levels
  • Overview of producing fields and evaluation of discovered CNS resources – near term developments and potentially commercial discoveries
  • Economic modelling and sensitivity studies utilising the in-house Pipeline Tool
  • Evaluation of other hubs and competing infrastructure assets, thereby addressing future business opportunities
  • Modelling of CATS throughput (risked and unrisked), assuming various gas price decks, E&A drilling activity levels and success rates

The Outcome & Benefit

  • Provision of the low, base and upside scenarios for the CATS catchment area, which subsequently supported the client’s investment’ decision
  • Westwood’s analysis suggested that the CATS system had significant oil & gas capture potential. Our client successfully acquired a 62.78% stake from the BG Group for a consideration of c. US$800 million
  • Our client subsequently acquired a further 36.22% stake from BP (GBP 324 million deal), thereby raising its stake in CATS to 99%