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Energy Transition Now - Episode 37 with Olivia Powis

In the second episode of our CCUS mini-series, we turn our focus to the United Kingdom – a country with plans to be a global leader in CCUS. Olivia Powis, UK Director for the Carbon Capture and Storage Association, spoke with David Linden to explain the specific role that the technology plays in the UK, and why – after past failed attempts – the industry can now achieve its ambitious targets.

David and Olivia also discuss both the opportunity and risks facing the industry, as well as what the longer-term vision is.  

olivia powis headshot

Olivia Powis is UK Director at the Carbon Capture and Storage Association (CCSA), where she works in partnership with the Chief Executive, and CCSA Board on developing the UK strategy and work programme of the association, representing its 100+ members to UK decision-makers. Olivia joined the CCSA in February 2021 following a public sector and trade association career in energy and infrastructure spanning two decades. Before joining the CCSA, Olivia worked as a Senior Policy Manager at the National Infrastructure Commission where she led on a number of projects including; a review of UK Economic Regulation and The Role of infrastructure in Housing.  Prior to this, Olivia worked at Ofgem leading workstreams on Strategic Investment, Connections and running a procurement project for a new energy solution in Shetland.  From 2010-2012, Olivia was Account Director at the Madano Partnership leading strategic communications for major energy and infrastructure accounts and she began her career in the Local Government Development Programme – a fast-track stream for local government, before working as London Regional Manager for the National Housing Federation, leading advocacy and European programmes for affordable and sustainable housing.

David Linden [00:00:00] Hello, everyone. You’re listening to Energy Transition Now. I’m your host, David Linden, the Head of Energy Transition for Westwood Global Energy Group. Today we are continuing with our CCUS mini series with a focus on the United Kingdom. After what feels like a long time coming, the stage now appears to be set for CCUS, to play a key role in the decarbonisation of the UK’s economy. But exactly how much of a role that will play and in what time frame is arguably still not that clear. So to give us some insight on the role of CCUS in the UK, I’m really pleased to have Olivia Powis from the Carbon Capture and Storage Association as our guest today. Welcome, Olivia, to Energy Transition Now.

Olivia Powis [00:00:47] Thank you. I’m very pleased to be here.

David Linden [00:00:50] Super. Thank you for taking the time out of your busy schedule to be here with us. I’m excited to hear some of your thoughts, on the market in the UK in particular. As maybe not everyone knows what CCSA actually is, would you mind just maybe starting off a little bit with giving a bit of background on that and what your role is within the organisation as well?

Olivia Powis [00:01:11] Yeah, sure. The CCSA is the Carbon Capture and Storage Association. It’s the trade association focused on, the commercial deployment of carbon capture utilisation and storage. And we work with our members, and government and other wider stakeholders to ensure that CCUS developed at scale and at the scale necessary to meet the net zero goals that have been set by, our government and other governments elsewhere. And also to deliver sustainable growth across all regions and nations. So we’ve got, we are growing quickly and we’ve now I think we’re up to 125 members at the moment. And that’s right across the value chain. And I’ll talk about the value chain later. But, so it represents, companies that are involved in the storage aspect that companies involved in the transportation of CO2 by, pipeline or shipping or road or rail. It’s members who are involved in developing the capture technologies, also the end users of the technology. So the industries that are going to put carbon capture on the on their plants and then also members of the supply chain. And then the supporting industries and financial legal consulting, etc..

David Linden [00:02:31] Okay, so quite a holistic, at least in some respects. And does that include, let’s say from a capture perspective, not just point source, but also kind of technologies like direct air capture as well?

Olivia Powis [00:02:42] Yeah, we also include. So it’s the whole it’s the whole lot. And it is you know, as an industry, it’s kind of in it. We have to look at all these industries together and how they’re going to interact together. So yeah, we also include, we have greenhouse gas removal technologies, just the technology so BECCs and DACs, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and direct air capture and with carbon capture and storage.

David Linden [00:03:06] Perfect. And what about your role within that then, Olivia, what do you focus on?

Olivia Powis [00:03:11] I am, UK director at the CCSA. So we’ve got two offices. We’ve got one in, London and one in Brussels. And so we have a trade association across, both of them. And so as UK director, I look after all of policy, communications, public affairs, for the organisation. And, and prior to that, my background is in energy. So I came from the National Infrastructure Commission, where I worked for 18 months or so on a regulatory study there for, across energy and water and telecoms. And then before that was at OFGEM, working in energy regulation for eight years.

David Linden [00:03:49]  And maybe it’s an obvious question, but why have an office in Brussels. Is it because, well, is your focus still exclusively UK? But you feel you ought to have a Brussels office or is there a different angle there?

Olivia Powis [00:04:04] No, we’re a European association. So we have an office in Brussels. We’ve had an office in Brussels for, for quite a few years, and they also manage a European grant from there. But we, you know, CCUS is deploying, you know, it’s not just the UK, it’s also in Europe. And we’ll come on to it, I think in the discussion, in terms of how those markets might interact. But there’s been a huge amount of development in Europe in the last 12 months. And obviously, CO2 does not have a border. And so but you also build up a supply chain. And there’s, you know, this is not just a UK supply chain, but it’s also a supply chain that could supply the industry globally. The EU office is focusing on the commission and member states, but we also do quite a lot of work in terms of how the markets will work together.

David Linden [00:04:54] Perfect. Yeah. Let us definitely come back to that, that point around the interaction between markets. Yeah, absolutely right. But but let’s start off with the UK specifically then, you know, there’s I sort of started off, if I could call it preamble around that, you know, the role of CCUS is sort of set to sort of the stage is set, shall I say, for CCUS in the UK. If you were to sort of look back and sort of, from your association’s perspective, what is the reason that you’re putting out there as to why CCS is actually needed in the UK in the first place? If you’ve got, you know, we’ve got other alternatives out there as well.

Olivia Powis [00:05:32] We’ve got other alternatives out there. But it is now commonly, recognised, understood and accepted by all leading organisations, in this area. So the Climate Change Committee said that, this was it’s an essential tool for reaching net zero. The IPCC, IEA have all recognised that carbon capture and storage plays an integral part in any pathway to net zero. So obviously you can, there are lots of ways of getting to net zero energy and lots of technologies. And some will deploy more than others. And, there are obviously suitable in different, locations and for different industries. But I think, you know, now we are at a point where carbon capture and storage and removals as well, are an integral part of, any pathway to net zero.

David Linden [00:06:27] Okay. And so specifically for the UK then is it it’s convenient because we just happen to have really good geology off our coast and, and oil and gas industry that’s essentially working towards a decline, stroke, decommissioning type phase of life. Wow. Isn’t it great that we can use that as an opportunity to decarbonise. And so therefore it should be an option, or is it genuinely the cheapest or most effective way of doing things? What’s the kind of balance there?

Olivia Powis [00:06:57] I think I mean, in the UK we’ve been looking at deploying CCUS. for for a number of years, and this is the third time around that that we’re there, but much further, developed this time and in this time is actually moving forward and, and is going to happen. But we do have we have a third of Europe’s, geological storage potential in, off, off the shores of the UK. So we are well placed to deploy it. We also have significant emissions there and we’ve got to do something with them and for some of those industries, carbon capture and storage is the only viable route to decarbonisation. So between those and the skills that we have and experience that we have in the offshore, it makes sense for the UK to develop CCUS, not only, I mean primarily for our domestic market to make sure that we can, get to net zero and, and protect and retain, some of those critical industries in the UK, but also, you know, develop, and lead a global market in terms of CO2 storage and export that storage potential and the supply chain and skills that that will go along with developing, the industry.

David Linden [00:08:11] Perfect. Yeah. Just come back to that opportunity in just a minute, a little bit. But if we want to give our listeners maybe a sense of scale here, how big are we talking about in terms of the ambition from the UK. And, and I appreciate, you know, that there are lots of numbers that are used. But maybe if you can also add to that a sense of, well, how big is that relative to maybe something else, other countries? Because I guess something people struggle with is to think about megatons, gigatons and, you know, stored versus captured and all those different bits and pieces. But also how big is the UK, maybe relative to other parts of the world? Just so people can put it into context a little bit. So what’s the ambition and how big is that?

Olivia Powis [00:08:53] The ambition, it’s grown. So I think if you go back to Boris Johnson’s ten point plan, it was 10 million tons to be captured and stored per annum. And then I think it was less than a year later, his Net zero strategy set out an ambition to, and it’s increased to 20 to 30 million tonnes of CO2 to be captured and stored by 2030, and to do that by establishing four clusters. So it was two by the mid 2020s, and then another two industrial clusters. So these clusters are locations of, where you’ve got a natural sort of group of industries that are emitting CO2 that can group together and access the, one set of transport and storage, of shared infrastructure, of pipes and CO2 storage. So it was two clusters by the mid 2020s, and then another two, by 2030. And then the ambition was set out that, that this would then double to around 50 to 60 million tonnes of CO2 to be captured per year by 2035. So we’re talking big, big significant numbers. And and this is ambitious and it’s ambitious growth. But CCSA has looked at, we did a piece of work called the Delivery Plan. And we looked at the pipeline of projects that was potentially looking at CCUS as a route to decarbonisation and found back in 2022 that that was around 70 million tonnes. So we knew that there were projects there, industries that are looking at using CO2 that amounted and these are real, tangible projects of that just sort of, kind in of these were actually ones that had told us that they were considering CCUS as a way to reach decarbonisation and that came to an annual capture rate of of 17 million tonnes per year. We then updated our delivery plan last year, and that had gone up by a third to 94 million tonnes. So the number of projects that are now looking to do it. So when you put that in relation to, you know, the government’s target of 20 to 30 million tonnes, rising to 50 to 60, we know that there’s the appetite, that we know that there is the need there to do that. But nevertheless, you know that the government’s ambition is still quite great. And then at scale, we’re now seeing it in terms of other countries. I think that, you know, the UK was was leading the way in terms of coming out with an ambition like that. Europe has now come forward and set their own ambition, which is also going through so it has increased quite quickly over time. But you know when, as I said, we’ve got a third, of the, of the storage potential of Europe’s storage potential in the UK. So it’s only, we have more than the EU states combined together. And it’s only Norway that has slightly more than us. And that’s around I think we’ve got around 78 gigatons, Norway very slightly more. So there is a huge amount. There’s much more storage than there is storage potential than there is set out in the government’s ambition. Which means that, you know, we know that there’s going to be sufficient storage capacity there.

David Linden [00:12:20] If you’re saying 50 to 60 million tonnes, as you say, or something like that, it’s essentially saying that’s how much you’re going to be storing each year. And the gigatons of that, the total capacity essentially of what you could put under the rocks, in some respects. And so you’re filling that up over time until you reach a gigaton and then another gigaton, another gigaton. So maybe, you know, a project has a life of 30 years or something like that. And so you’re filling up those rocks, that storage site over that period of time. And that’s how you able to fill it up?

Olivia Powis [00:12:55] Yep. And over that time, you will also be moving towards decarbonisation in other methods here. So, you know, you would hope that by 2050 these are all targets by 2050 to reach net zero, you know, by net zero we will have, have massively reduced the amount of CO2 that we’re producing in the first place. But we know that we’ll also have to carry on doing carbon removals, from that point onwards as well, to get it to continue to, you know, to meet net zero and to potentially remove any further CO2 that we’re putting into the atmosphere.

David Linden [00:13:30] So if we talk about opportunity then, you’ve kind of mentioned the few we’ve gone along there, which is around, you’re actually got to be able to decarbonise the UK economy. And you know, areas typically called like I guess hard to abate areas. So, where you don’t have an alternative maybe, or a less readily available alternative, you’ve got, I guess investment opportunities. You’ve got the skills and the use of capital and those sorts of things. What are the kind of opportunity does the kind of CCUS story present for the UK, maybe UK plc even?

Olivia Powis [00:14:06] Yeah. I mean, it’s you’ve touched on a lot of them there. So. I mean, I talked about the clusters that we have industrial regions in the UK, and these have many industries that will be looking at either using CCUS to decarbonise or to access the hydrogen that will be, produced there as well as a route to decarbonisation. So it’s a significant opportunity to decarbonise things like cement, chemicals, fertiliser, glass manufacturing industries. It also will help to decarbonise our power system. So one of the elements in the value chain that we talk about is, dispatchable power. This is flexible power. So it’s gas power stations with CCUS. And the way that this has been designed is that this power would only be dispatched when renewables are not fulfilling, the need on the system. So it won’t replace renewables. But what it will do is enable more renewables on the system because it can provide that flexibility and that intermittent power. So that helps with the UK’s energy security. And, and can also result in system wide cost benefits and reducing overall household bills. So there are benefits there as well. You touched on jobs. This is a whole new industry to be developed at scale. And the CCSA estimate that it will create around 70,000 new skilled jobs across the UK. But in addition to that, so obviously new industries are going to create new jobs. I think the critical point is that we protect industries and protect those jobs in those areas. So if you take a cement plant in a local area that employs local people, if they can fit, carbon capture and storage, they can then keep operating, you know, they have to decarbonise. It’s in legislation. So they’ve got to decarbonise and in some way. And so this is the clearest and most viable and only real route open to them is carbon capture and storage. And so by doing that you keep those people in those jobs and then you can sell what is known as a as a low carbon product. So something like a low carbon cement.

David Linden [00:16:18] So I guess the risk is that they shut down and leave. The risk is that there is to the alternative of protection for that particular industry.

Olivia Powis [00:16:26] Then they either shut down or they go elsewhere to access. But very difficult to pick up some important investment to go and access CO2 transport and storage infrastructure elsewhere. So it retains jobs. And we estimate it retains around 77,000 jobs, across the industrial regions. And that’s estimated to be worth, 180 billion, I think overall, and 54 billion per year in turnover by 2050. So huge opportunities there. And then also as I mentioned, export of CO2 storage, CO2 storage. So allowing other countries to, store their CO2 in our stores and also exporting the skills and expertise that we’ve got and doing that to other countries that will then be looking at developing their stores and that sector of CO2 export to CO2 storage. That sector is is valued at around £30 billion annually in taxable revenues. So there are significant opportunities, you know, and it’s both in terms of very localised protecting industries, protecting jobs, but also creating an industry that has significant value and export value.

David Linden [00:17:47] So that’s quite fascinating. Okay, yeah. So I think an interesting point that you mentioned there is that export of CO2 storage concept, because I think the number of projects that I’ve certainly talked to or ones that, you know, you can say quite publicly, they are part of their longer term business model, essentially relies on imports of CO2 from other nations, particularly EU kind of nations, and other countries like Norway have got the same idea, and have got more storage readily available right now. So the Northern Lights project was built with excess capacity and imports in particular. When do you see imports from other countries playing a role in the UK, and do you see any issues in terms of it actually, what kind of barriers need to overcome. Because you know, there’s obviously London protocol which would stop the transportation of CO2 across borders. There’s the whole fact that the UK is not part of the EU, and then you’ve got two different emissions trading schemes, two different carbon border mechanisms, etc.. It’s just the point that’s come up a lot recently. What’s your sort of view in terms of a) that happening and in what time frame and b) you know, if there are some of the kind of risks that we’ve got around it, you know, are they solvable?

Olivia Powis [00:19:08] I think you’ve just listed them there. And I would say there are others. So it is it’s a huge opportunity. And we know there are all the countries in the EU have got to also facing this issue. You’ve got to decarbonise. And so they’ve got to look at the best option of doing that. And many of them don’t have access to, CO2 storage, don’t have direct access to it. So there is a big opportunity there. And we’ve got spare capacity. So I think, you know, and as, we develop the shipping of CO2 market and that’s moving now at pace, then, you know, there’s a there’s a mechanism to transport it, relatively easily from one place to another. I think the UK government is focused on, first of all, making sure that we’re dealing with our domestic emissions. And obviously that’s fair and that’s fine. But there is capacity, and if we can export storage capacity elsewhere, it does provide more resilience to those stores. You know, they know that if for whatever reason, there’s an issue with the CO2 stream coming in the UK from domestic emissions, there’s an opportunity to then also at the same time take shipments of CO2 from elsewhere, which will help lower the cost for everyone involved. But also, you know, provide that resilience. I think in terms of barriers, you’ve mentioned them. They are not insurmountable, I think. And it is, as you say, it’s a hot topic and everyone is, is working at the moment to try and resolve that.

David Linden [00:20:40] Is it. It’s a little difficult to put a pin on it. This is this has been the case with, with any industry that since he relies on politics and market regulation to function as a starting point. And obviously we’ve seen a lot of that in the UK and how it’s developed. You know, if we come back to the point around the stage is set, what sort of happened in the UK market in itself that you would kind of categorise as a success or a key initiative or so in the last year, 18 months or so. That is sort of what is setting the stage for us. Why are we in this position of, yeah, you know, significant potential?

Olivia Powis [00:21:19] I mean, it’s interesting and I find it very easy because I joined the CCSA just, just before, about 2 or 3 weeks before they announced the cluster sequencing process. So I’ve seen things move, from start to where we are now. And I would say the last, in 2023 there was rapid progress and lots and lots of things we’re able to move forward. There’ve been quite a lot of political instability in the year prior to that. And there’d been a bit of a hiatus. There’d been good progress made before, but really, last year, the there was so much that, I think helped the industry sort of see that the government was, was behind this and able to move forward. So we had the first the eight projects that will be connecting to the track one infrastructure. They were announced, so they’re now in, in negotiations, in the final negotiations. And that’s five in, HyNet in the northwest and three on the East Coast.

David Linden [00:22:20] You’re talking about capture projects?

Olivia Powis [00:22:22] Capture projects, yes.

David Linden [00:22:23] No storage, yes.

Olivia Powis [00:22:25] That will that will connect to the shared infrastructure for the transport and storage. We had the Chancellor commit to 20 billion to early deployment of CCUS. So that gave a real signal that the government was, was was serious about this and wanted to push forward. They also announced that there would be track two and then very rapidly, selected the next two clusters, the transport and storage clusters that would that would move forward. And so that was Viking and Humber and Acorn in Scotland and also announced the track one expansion. So this is known as you’ve got the two current one clusters, but then announced a process that you know, not then they can expand those networks. They can build, more more emitters can connect to the network. And that was announced and launched for HyNet in the northwest last year. A lot of progress on the business models and the regulatory and legislative framework that sits around that. So the energy bill that will enable the business models to have the money flowing through them, achieved royal assent. And some of those business models are now moving and towards secondary legislation, a storage licensing round as well. So 21 new licences awarded. And then just before Christmas, we’d been pushing for a deployment plan for the industry. So what’s the long term beyond these four clusters? We know we’ve got a map. We now have 12 clusters on the map. What’s happening with the others? And the government published CCUS vision. And this was a real look forward for the industry in terms of what happens. And up to 2035 and then beyond 2035. So loads and loads of progress I think from the government, loads of work there and then also from industry. I talked about the delivery plan, you know, with the number of projects interested increased by a third, a lot of work on the supply chain, we published a supply chain strategy and the industry committed to an ambition of achieving 50% UK content. So to keep those, you know, to buy from the UK also work around developing the workforce and skills. We did a workforce and skills position paper and that’s being taken forward, as part of the Green Jobs Delivery group to address the skills shortages and just those projects that have now, you know, selected track one projects moving forward through the processes moving forward, going through the consenting processes, you know, getting planning, actually becoming real projects as as they’re in negotiations, with government. So a huge amount really in a year I think and we all know, you know, lots of other countries are moving forward. But I think that regulatory framework, the business models are really held up as being world class. And essentially they’re they’re based on a contract for difference model, which is being used for offshore wind and renewables. This is you know, and it’s known it’s understood by investors. And and these business models, you know, what the government’s trying to do is to I’ve talked about the the value chain says that, you know, a capture component connecting to, to a pipeline, connecting to the storage. And so there’s lots of parts of it. And what the government has tried to do in, in this is to try and look at the risks and underwrite some of those risks in the, in the value chain. So what happens if a store develops and there are no emitters to connect to it? What happens if an emitter has gone ahead and installed carbon capture and doesn’t have a store to connect to, and all the all the various bits that could risks that could happen in between. So the role of those business models is to try and mitigate against those those cross-trained risks.

David Linden [00:26:12] Yes. And it’s it’s be fascinating to watch how they’ve evolved and developed. And I guess the the only sort of frustration that some have shown is if you’re excited or want to move forward, you’re slowed down a little bit because as you say, you kind of need all these different bits of pieces to fall in line for it to work. For someone to say, I can actually go from MOU to FID, let’s just say for simplicity with somebody and actually get my selected, carbon capture plants to then send their cO2 my way. You can only do that if it all aligns and it all works. Versus somewhere like the US, which is classically big, you know, showing there’s more of a here’s an incentive, go do it type thing. Oh, there’s a halfway house in many parts, but essentially that’s it. It’s a different world. And you’re right, it is world class in that sense. But there’s a reason we’ve also not reached FID, in any of these projects just yet, because you need that alignment to happen. And I we’re expecting an FID, like I think end of this this year, aren’t we?

Olivia Powis [00:27:12] We are expecting end of this year, hopefully before then, you know we want it by the summer by September the latest really on those track one projects so that they can have that certainty to then move forward. But yes, it is. And I think, you know, we talked about this is not the first time in the UK, but that it by having a cluster, by having a number of emitters connecting to that network, you share the costs you share, it’s the most efficient way of doing it. But it does you know, you’ve got to you’ve got to work out how you’re going to address all these risks. If you just have what’s called point to point, we just have one emitter and one store. Obviously the risk on either not going forward is immense. So this cluster approach is now being rolled out elsewhere as well. It’s it’s seen as the the ideal way. But also it’s the purpose of this is to decarbonise those industries. You know, that’s what we’re trying to do, provide that low carbon power. So you know the the cluster approach makes sense from, from that point of view as well.

David Linden [00:28:10] You mentioned barriers and risks. How about we go on to that one then next, just in terms of seeing that industry move forward. It’s useful to touch on that because it just gives you a sign of how things will evolve, in some respects. And if there are kind of other flies in the ointment, whatever you want to call it as we move forward. What is it that we need to keep an eye out on going forward to see this industry succeed? Just to give you a flavour of when I’ve been talking to folks, it’s, you know, oh, are we going to have any emitters left? By the time we get our storage sites up type conversations, or is it, oh, the carbon price is not actually going to support what I need to do once this industry becomes a little bit more outside of a subsidised system. Simplistically. Or all these things valid or, you know, what are the main ones you’re looking at as the kind of barriers and risks going ahead?

Olivia Powis [00:29:05] I think they, you know, they sort of fall into, into different categories. So the first one is, as you say, getting these first projects to final investment decision and soon. So we have to get some the first project signed on the ground working and functioning, but then also the next to the hunt, you know, within the next two clusters, two clusters need to move on behind. So, it’s about making sure that the government commits. So the 20 billion was for early deployment. We need to know when the next tranche is coming. I mean, within that the CCSA put in, a budget submission and we modelled that we, I mean, like between it would take between 2 to 3 billion a year, peaking in the early 2030s and then start to fall to kick start the market. But so it’s a clear funding mechanism. It’s an allocation framework, moving forward, so you’ve got regular allocation so industries can see when the next opportunity is to bid in, and to be able to have the certainty of that infrastructure. But as you say, there needs to be subsidy to kickstart the market and to get it moving, as with any new market. But then we need to have a route where we’re moving away from that, and the government needs to see that that’s there. So that’s what the CCUS vision that was published just before Christmas was about. And you’re right, this is where a carbon price comes in. We need to have a stable carbon price in a stable and high enough carbon price to act as an incentive and driver to decarbonise there. And also it’s around the, you know, some of the risks around the supply chain and skills we have to make sure that we’ve got and the supply chain is going to be ready and has capacity to be able to construct a lot of what we’re we’re looking at needing in the next 8 to 10 years of rapid scale up and also skills, who’s going to do this? Who’s going to to build all this? Do we have the right people? Do we, you know, are there enough of them. And we’re competing with lots of other net zero technologies, and we’re competing with other and wider infrastructure for for the same people. So there are barriers and risks there. And, and obviously we’ve got an election coming up. So we need to make sure that, you know, we can smoothly transition, if there is a change in government that things can keep moving. We’ve got very real targets by 2030, and it’s now quarter of the way through 2024. You know these things take many years to build and move through the process. And this is a very large infrastructure. So it’s about keeping pace, accelerating and getting those first projects I think off and running. But having that forward secure look that this is we are moving beyond just the first projects and there will be further opportunities. And then obviously we’ve talked about exporting storage. So removing those barriers to cross border is is also critical in terms of helping the business case.

David Linden [00:32:13] Is it fair to say then, so while you’ve got that sense of ambition that people have told you that they would like to do, and we saw the last licensing round come up with a large number of people showing interest in this space. Is the reality that because of the way things need to evolve and develop and you don’t have perfect line of sight, should we say of everything? Some things just simply won’t work out. So all these projects that we talk about, all these licenses out in the North Sea, or potential licenses, excuse me, we need to move on to permits and those sorts of things. They are not all going to be built because you just don’t have enough certainty to make that happen. And similar, in fact, to an oil and gas project itself, maybe sometimes it looks really good and the business case works. And other times, even though if the site is nice, you can’t get your business case together. And so therefore it’s just not going to happen. Is that a reality we’re going to have to live with?

Olivia Powis [00:33:04] Yes, I think so. And I mean, I and I talked about the pipeline being 94 million tons. You know, an ambition is 20 to 30. So, and some of those, some of those projects will look an alternative way of decarbonising and that’s, you know, that that will happen and that will work. And maybe some of them will close down and some of the you know, it’s not of course, I don’t think everything is going to go forward. And you talked about the storage licenses. I mean, there were 21 licenses, I think, awarded last year, and they all have to go through an appraisal process. They have to look at the geology. They have to look at the suitability for storing CO2. And it might be that they’re not all suitable after that appraisal process. So you know that that’s why we sort of need so many to go through these stages and to continue doing that, to make sure that, you know, to make sure that we’ve got enough. And and there’s a lot of discussion about over sizing of storage capacity, to pre-empt that potential failure in points that in the store development to make sure that we’ve got enough capacity to meet targets. So yeah, we can’t just say, oh, there’s 21 and they’re all going to move forward and all will be suitable. You know, it takes it takes 6 to 7 years to move to get a CO2 store to ready, for development. And so at those points throughout that you, you find out more about it and they go through that appraisal process. So I think yes, I think it would be sort of over optimistic and unrealistic to say that every project that we know of and every storage license is going to move forward. Of course not. But, you know, but we need a significant number of them to move forward. And I think as the industry gets going, these things will speed up and that will be the regulators will understand more about the industry. Everyone involved will understand more about the industry and what’s involved.

David Linden [00:35:00] I think we’re drawing to a close of our time. Last question for me, or it’s a double question, let me make it difficult. As an organisation, what would you say is therefore your key ask of government as such for this? And what as a result of that, does the kind of the vision for you of the CCUS industry look like in the UK?

Olivia Powis [00:35:20] Yeah, I mean, I think for government we’re very clear and we’ve sort of set out it’s it’s two things. It’s following on on existing commitments in a timely way. So reaching those final investment decisions, with track one moving forward at pace with track two. And it’s also clarifying how future commitments will be funded. So looking at that annual revenue supportive of 2 to 3 billion a year. Peaking at 2 to 3 billion a year. And then going down over time. And if once that’s there, the rest of the industry, the supply chain, the skills, all of those points we talked about will have that certainty to move forward. You know, we know private investors are ready to invest. We know there’s a huge amount, we said that 30 billion private sector investment will go into this industry before 2030. The government is not going to be asked, you know, no money will flow through those business models until 2028 onwards. So all that private sector capital is up fronting this model and driving that investment. I think that they are two things and that’s for whoever’s in government. It’s in the same message as the and then you know, where where the UK will get to I think is that we have the potential to build this huge new industry. We know that there’s a bit of a global race on at the moment. Lots of other countries are also moving forward at pace. We’ve done a huge amount of work, so we need to make sure that, you know, now that comes to fruition and we have actual, tangible projects that we can learn from, we can improve on. And, you know, people can start to sort of see these actual real, things. So I think now it’s really moving forward at pace and working towards a self-sustaining industry. That can take us to net zero. But then also, as I said at the beginning, continue to store CO2 and use carbon removal technologies to make sure that any further CO2 that submitted is being stored and not put into the atmosphere. So I think really there’s a potential here and the UK has all the components ready. We have the skills, the expertise, the storage capacity. We have the business models, the regulation, we have all of it there. But we just need to now move forward and develop this infrastructure and really, and start capturing and start making this a reality.

David Linden [00:37:55] Thank you. Olivia. That’s really great. And, I’m looking forward to the FID in the summer that’s really gonna get everyone excited about the opportunity here, because I think that that will give a real sense of commitment and time to move forward. And then obviously watching it move to a self-sustaining industry. But wonderful. Thank you so much for taking the time. That was really great. Appreciate you sharing your thoughts with us.

Olivia Powis [00:38:19] Thank you. Thank you. Real pleasure. All right.

David Linden [00:38:21] Perfect. And thanks everyone else for listening. Hope you have enjoyed it. Please subscribe, give us a good rating. Talk to you next time.



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