Westwood’s Global Subsea Tree Tracker
Each month Westwood’s subsea team provides a global update on subsea tree awards, with data sourced from and analysed using, SubseaLogix. Bookmark this page for regular updates on the health of the subsea oil and gas sector.
View 2024 Data
Updated – 6th December, 2025
Australia: Chevron announced the final investment decision for its Gorgon Stage 3 development. The development includes six subsea wells drilled across the Geryon and Eurytion fields, with a total development cost of US$1.98bn.
Indonesia: TechnipFMC has announced an integrated engineering, procurement, construction, and installation (iEPCI) contract award for Eni’s Maha project. TechnipFMC will design and manufacture its Subsea 2.0® tree systems, flexible flowlines, a manifold, and controls, and install the subsea production system. The award will be included in the contractor’s 2Q 2025 inbound orders.
Brunei: Petronas sanctioned the development of its Kelidang Cluster project. The project includes six subsea trees tied back to a leased FPSO, with first oil anticipated in 2030.
- Subsea tree awards recorded year‑to‑date closed at 165 units. The key highlight for the month was TechnipFMC securing an integrated EPCI contract from Eni for the Maha project offshore Indonesia. Additional subsea tree awards anticipated before the end of the month include Chevron’s recently sanctioned Gorgon Stage 3 development offshore Australia, which is expected to be covered under TechnipFMC’s 20‑year frame agreement running through 2043, as well as for Petronas’ Kelidang Cluster project offshore Brunei.
- Our visible base-case demand outlook for subsea tree units from 2025 to 2029 remains unchanged from last month’s forecast at c.1,380 units, averaging 275 units a year, with tree demand in 2026 to be underpinned by TotalEnergies’ Venus project (Namibia), ExxonMobil’s’ Longtail (Guyana), Eni’s Geng North and the Baleine Ph.3 development offshore Ivory Coast.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
Updated – 6th November, 2025
Brazil: Following frame agreement awards to Baker Hughes and TechnipFMC for the supply of a total of 82 subsea trees, there has been a downward revision to the tree awards in Brazil YTD, given that the trees will be called out over multiple quarters and delivered over 5 years.
Malaysia: OneSubsea was awarded a contract for comprehensive subsea production systems (SPS) comprising horizontal subsea trees, umbilicals, control systems, and associated services for PTTEP’s Block H and the Kikeh oil and gas field.
Angola: Westwood understands that Azule Energy is planning an infill drilling campaign for at least three subsea wells at its Block 31 fields offshore Angola, with drilling expected to commence in 2027.
Norway: Var Energi is reportedly progressing the development plan for the Balder Next project, with FID expected before the end of 2025.
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Subsea tree awards totalled 164 units year‑to‑date as of the end of October 2025, including 29 classified as “Pre‑Order” following the issuance of letters of intent for procurement ahead offormal callouts or field FIDs. A further 43 units are expected to be awarded before year‑end, supported by BP’s Tiber‑Guadalupe development in the Gulf of America, Eni’s Coral NorteFLNG project (Mozambique), Petronas’ Kelidang Cluster (Brunei), and Woodside’s Greater Western Flank Ph. 4 (Australia).
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A downward revision in the subsea tree award from 194 units reported in October 2025 to 164 units reported this month is driven by Petrobras’ 82 subsea tree award to Baker Hughes andTechnipFMC. These two awards are frame agreements, with callouts expected over multiple quarters, not a lump-sum contract as previously represented.
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Our base‑case outlook for subsea tree demand from 2025 to 2029 remains unchanged from last month at approximately 1,380 units, averaging around 275 units per year. CNOOC, thethird-largest E&P contributor to global demand over the forecast, is expected to be driven by its Kaiping 18‑1 and 11‑4 developments scheduled for sanctioning in 2026, with additionaldemand post‑2026 supported by projects such as Baodao 21‑1 and Lingshui 36‑1.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
Updated – 6th October, 2025
Brazil: Baker Hughes has been awarded a contract by Petrobras to deliver up to 50 subsea trees and associated services to support offshore oil and gas production across multiple fields offshore Brazil.
Brazil: TechnipFMC secured a substantial contract from Petrobras for the design, engineering, and manufacturing of subsea production systems. The scope includes deployment across both greenfield developments and brownfield expansions.
Guyana: TechnipFMC has been selected by ExxonMobil to provide project management, engineering, and manufacturing of subsea production systems for the Hammerhead development. The award includes at least 18 subsea trees, manifolds, and associated control systems.
Turkey: Baker Hughes confirmed the contract to supply integrated subsea production and intelligent completion systems for the development of TPAO’s Sakarya Phase III project.
- At the end of September 2025, subsea tree unit awards recorded year-to-date closed at 194, representing a 6% year-on-year increase. Westwood forecasts an additional 48 subsea tree unit awards to be confirmed for the remainder of 2025, underpinned by the recently sanctioned BP’s Tiber-Guadalupe project in the Gulf of America, Eni’s Coral Norte FLNG project offshore Mozambique, Shell’s Mina West offshore Egypt and the confirmation of subsea tree awards for Equinor’s Heidrun Expansion Project offshore Norway.
- Our visible base-case demand outlook for subsea tree units from 2025 to 2029 is estimated at c.1,380 units, averaging 275 units a year, with a base case assumption of oil prices trading above US$70/bbl over the 2026-29 period.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
Updated – 4th September, 2025
Norway: The OneSubsea JV was awarded the contract to supply 12 all-electric subsea trees for Equinor’s Fram Sor development. The work scope also includes four subsea templates, with the contract subject to regulatory approval of the plan for development and operations PDO.
Australia: Amplitude Energy is seeking to develop its Annie gas discovery as part of its East Coast Supply Project (ECSP). The development phase of the ECSP is reportedly progressing, as front-end engineering and design (FEED) studies commenced in 3Q 2025, and tenders for the subsea tie-in scopes are expected to be issued in 4Q 2025.
Cyprus: Eni is reportedly progressing with the development of its Cronos gas field, with plans to drill at least four development wells starting late 2026.
- As of the end of August 2025, 108 subsea tree units had been awarded year-to-date. Westwood forecasts a further 128 units to be awarded over the remainder of the year, of which 34 units have received a letter of intent, while another 62 units are classified as “Firm”, indicating a high level of confidence in their execution. This suggests that total subsea tree awards for 2025 are likely to exceed 200 units, despite ongoing macroeconomic challenges and oil prices being lower than earlier projections.
- Contracting activity offshore Norway in 2025 has significantly supported year-to-date subsea tree awards, accounting for 37% of contracted units. This has been driven by major subsea tieback projects and brownfield developments, including Equinor’s Fram Sør and Johan Sverdrup Ph.3, Aker BP’s East Frigg, and Vår Energi’s Balder project.
- Our visible base-case demand outlook for subsea tree units from 2025 to 2029 is estimated at 1,413 units, representing a slight decline compared to last month’s forecast. Outside the Americas, major gas developments offshore East Africa, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Asia-Pacific region will remain critical to sustaining the demand outlook.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
Updated – 7th August, 2025
Trendsetter Engineering announced a contract award to deliver four 15K horizontal subsea tree systems, associated tooling and installation services to a major Gulf of America operator.
Beacon sanctioned the development of the Shenandoah South discovery in the US Gulf. The field will be developed as a two-well subsea tieback to the Shenandoah production facility via a 4.8km subsea flowline. Production from the first well is expected in 2Q 2028.
- Subsea tree unit awards recorded year-to-date closed at 97 units, with Turkey and Norway accounting for 61%, driven by TPAO’s Sakarya development, Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup Ph.3 and Var Energi’s Balder project. Westwood forecast an additional 142 units to be sanctioned for the remainder of 2025, with Exxon’s Hammerhead accounting for 30 units, Equinor’s Fram Sor with 12 units and Chevron’s JSM field in the US Gulf accounting for nine units. Petrobras could also potentially have over 40 subsea tree units awarded in 2H 2025 under its global frame agreement call-out.
- Subsea tree awards in the first seven months of 2025 are at their lowest level since 2020, impacted by a weaker-than-expected oil price environment and inflationary pressures in the supply chain. These factors are straining operators’ free cash flow and prompting a renewed emphasis on cost efficiency across the value chain.
- Looking forward, our base-case demand outlook for subsea tree units over the 2025-2029 period stands at 1,422 units, averaging 284 units annually. A rebound is forecast in 2026, with approximately 290 units, led by Africa (35%). This surge will be driven by TotalEnergies’ Venus development offshore Namibia, Eni’s Baleine Ph. 3 (Ivory Coast), and Azule Energy’s PAJ project offshore Angola.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
Updated – 7th July, 2025
Trendsetter Engineering announced a contract award to deliver four 15K horizontal subsea tree systems, associated tooling and installation services to a major Gulf of America operator.
Beacon sanctioned the development of the Shenandoah South discovery in the US Gulf. The field will be developed as a two-well subsea tieback to the Shenandoah production facility via a 4.8km subsea flowline. Production from the first well is expected in 2Q 2028.
- Subsea tree unit awards recorded in 2Q 2025 closed at 31 units, bringing the year-to-date count to 66 units. An additional 182 subsea tree unit awards are anticipated in 2H 2025.
- Key projects to watch in 2H 2025 include ExxonMobil’s Hammerhead development offshore Guyana, TPAO’s Sakarya Ph.3 project (Turkey), Equinor’s Fram Sor and the Heidrun expansion project offshore Norway.
- Our visible base-case demand outlook for subsea tree units from 2025 to 2029 is estimated at 1,406 units, a marginal increase compared to last month’s outlook.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
Updated – 6th June, 2025
Trinidad & Tobago: Shell sanctioned the development of its Aphrodite gas field, with first gas production scheduled for 2027. The field will be developed as a single subsea well tieback to existing infrastructure at its Barracuda network.
- No subsea tree contracts were announced in May 2025. However, Westwood forecast that total subsea tree demand for 2025 will total 275 units, with only 42 units (15%) already awarded year-to-date. Key subsea tree contract to watch for the remainder of 2Q 2025 includes ExxonMobil’s Hammerhead development (Guyana), with 30 subsea tree units, Equinor’s Fram Sor, with 12 subsea tree units and Aker BP’s East Frigg Beta /Epsilon field, which is expected to be developed with four wells and a six-slot template.
- Petrobras is also reportedly progressing with the tender it launched in 3Q 2024 for the supply of 82 subsea tree units, which it intended to be deployed across multiple fields in the Campos and Santos Basins, offshore Brazil. The contract on offer is reportedly for a 5-year period, for which Westwood anticipates will be awarded as a frame agreement in 2H 2025, with unit call-out expected to take place over several years.
- Our visible base-case demand outlook for subsea tree units from 2025 to 2029 is estimated at 1,400 units, averaging 280 units per year.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
Updated – 6th May, 2025
Trinidad & Tobago: OneSubsea will deliver four standardised vertical monobore subsea trees for BP’s Ginger field. OneSubsea will also deliver a high-integrity pressure protection system (HIPPS) manifold for the project.
Nigeria: ExxonMobil indicated it would invest US$1.5 billion in deepwater exploration and development, stating it plans to take a final investment decision (FID) on the Usan revitalization project in 3Q 2025.
Norway: In its 2024 Annual Report published on 8 April 2025, Aker BP indicated that it sanctioned an infill target at its Alvheim development in 4Q 2024. Aker BP expects first production from the infill target in 4Q 2025.
- At the end of April 2025, subsea tree awards recorded year-to-date closed at 42 units, a 62% YoY decline. Activities offshore Norway accounted for 52% of recorded activity, driven by the sanctioning of Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup Ph. 3, Var Energi’s Balder development and the Northern Light Carbon Storage Ph. 2 project.
- Given market uncertainty and macro headwinds, contracting activity in 2Q is expected to remain subdued, with the sanctioning of Eni’s Coral Norte (Mozambique) and Baleine Ph. 3 development (Ivory Coast) now anticipated in 2H 2025. ExxonMobil’s Hammerhead development offshore Guyana remains a key project to watch for the quarter, with Equinor’s Fram Sor and the Heidrun expansion project (Norway) expected to support subsea tree order intake in 2Q.
- Our visible base-case demand outlook for subsea tree units from 2025 to 2029 is estimated at 1,400 units, averaging 280 units per year. However, the timeline for awarding these contracts remains fluid as oil price volatility continues to impact investment strategy.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
Updated – 6th April, 2025
Norway: Equinor and its project partners announced a final investment decision (FID) for the second phase of its Northern Lights Carbon Storage (CS) project. The total project investment for phase II is estimated at US$711 million and will require at least two subsea trees for the necessary injection wells.
Trinidad & Tobago: BP announced that a final investment decision (FID) was made for its Ginger gas field. The field will utilise four development wells, tied back to the Mahogany B fixed platform. First gas is scheduled for 2027.
Brazil: Following Shell’s announcement that it has taken a final investment decision (FID) on its Gato do Mato field in the Santos Basin, TechnipFMC announced it was awarded the subsea integrated engineering, procurement, construction and installation (iEPCI) work scope for the field.
Norway: TechnipFMC was awarded the subsea integrated engineering, procurement, construction and installation (iEPCI) work scope for Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup Phase III development in the Norwegian North Sea.
- Subsea tree unit award recorded in 1Q 2025 closed at 32 units, a 65% decline QoQ, as macro headwinds and supply chain inflationary pressures continue to weigh on project sanctioning and contract award timeline. TechnipFMC dominated announced awards during the period under review, with integrated engineering, procurement, construction and installation (iEPCI) award for Shell’s Gat do Mato offshore Brazil and Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup Phase III development in the Norwegian North Sea.
- Key subsea tree contract awards to watch in 2Q 2025 include ExxonMobil’s Hammerhead development offshore Guyana, with LNTP already issued to key contractors, Eni’s Coral Norte (Mozambique), Equinor’s Fram Sor and the Heidrun expansion project (Norway)
- Our visible base-case demand outlook for subsea tree units from 2025 to 2029 is estimated at 1,400 units, averaging 280 units per year. Tree demand will be driven by activities offshore Brazil, Guyana and Norway, whilst CNOOC’s ambition to develop its Baodao 12-1 and future expansion at its Lingshui and Liuhua fields could support demand in the latter years of the forecast.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
Updated – 6th March, 2025
Australia: ExxonMobil and its field partners have approved approximately US$200 million investment in the Kipper 1B project. The project will require a single subsea well tied back to the West Tuna platform.
China: Industry sources have reported that a front-runner has emerged to supply CNOOC subsea production systems (SPS) for its Liuhua 28-2 and Liuhua 27-1 oilfields in the South China Sea.
Guyana: ExxonMobil has filed the environmental impact assessment for the Hammerhead development offshore Guyana, with a scheduled production start date of 2029. The project will require at least 30 subsea trees across four drill centres connected to a floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) unit.
Azerbaijan: TotalEnergies has commenced the front-end engineering and design (FEED) studies for the second phase of the Absheron development, with the objective of reaching readiness for the final investment decision (FID) in 2026.
- Subsea tree contract award announced remains subdued, with only five units recorded year-to-date. Furthermore, there has been a 7% downward revision to Westwood’s 2025 subsea tree demand outlook, totalling 265 units as E&Ps continue to prioritise their Capex distribution, with several final investment decision (FID) ready projects being optimised in the face of high supply chain cost. Key subsea tree contract awards to watch for the remainder of 1Q 2025 include Eni’s Coral Norte (Mozambique), Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil) and Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup phase III project in the Norwegian North Sea.
- Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2025-29 period is forecast at c.1,385 units, a marginal 1% decline compared to last month’s outlook.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
Updated – 6th February, 2025
Norway: OneSubsea announced it had been awarded a sizeable subsea production systems (SPS) work scope to expedite field development projects for Vår Energi. The first package includes a complete SPS system, including four vertical subsea trees, wellheads, templates, manifolds, and other associated equipment.
Ivory Coast: Murphy Oil plans to submit a field development plan by 4Q 2025 for its Paon field. Murphy reportedly completed a seismic reprocessing survey in 4Q 2024 and plans to initiate a three-well exploration program in 4Q 2025.
Australia: Chevron plans to issue a request for information (RFI) in January 2025 for the drilling work scope for its Gorgon Stage 3 Drilling and Completion Campaign. The programme consists of six subsea wells across the Geryon and Eurytion (G&E) fields. Given a 20-year framework agreement between TechnipFMC and Chevron Australia announced in 2Q 2023, TechnipFMC is expected to supply the related subsea production equipment.
- No subsea tree contract award was announced in January 2024. However, in early February, OneSubsea announced a strategic subsea partnership agreement with Vår Energi for standardised subsea equipment for upcoming oil and gas developments in the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS). OneSubsea confirmed that the first package includes a complete SPS system, including four vertical subsea trees.
- Key subsea tree contract awards to watch for the remainder of 1Q 2025 include Eni’s Coral Norte (Mozambique), Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil) and TotalEnergies’ Preowei development offshore Nigeria.
- Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2025-29 period is forecast at c.1,395 units, averaging approximately 279 units a year.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
Updated – 6th Janaury, 2025
Nigeria: TechnipFMC confirmed the contract awarded to supply its Subsea 2.0® subsea production systems at Shell’s Bonga North project. The work scope covers the design and manufacture of subsea tree systems, manifolds, jumpers, controls and services.
UK: TechnipFMC has received the notice to proceed with the integrated engineering, procurement, construction, and installation (iEPCI) work scope for the Northern Endurance Partnership CCS project, following the project’s final investment decision (FID) announced on 10 November 2024. TechnipFMC indicated that this award was included in its inbound orders.
USA: Beacon Offshore announced it had sanctioned the development of its Shenandoah Phase II in the US GoM. This project will involve the drilling and completion of two additional production wells. The operator also plans to sanction the Shenandoah South discovery in 2Q 2025 and will require two subsea wells.
USA: Shell announced a final investment decision (FID) to develop its Silvertip Ph.3 project via two subsea wells tied into existing infrastructure. Production is scheduled to commence in 2026.
- 4Q 2024 subsea tree award recorded closed at 70 units, representing an 11% quarter-on-quarter decline. This brings total subsea tree award in 2024 to close at 255 units, a 12% year-on-year decline.
- Westwood’s 2025 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast to total approximately 290 units, driven by activities offshore Brazil, Turkey, Norway, Nigeria and the Ivory Coast based on a $75-$85/bbl Brent oil price. Based on our assessment of subsurface, commercial, and geopolitical factors, we categorize the anticipated tree awards as follows: 174 units (60%) are classified as “Firm”, 76 units (26%) as “Probable”, and 30 units (10%) are classified as “Possible”, with 12 units already issued with a letter of intent (LoI), pending final investment decision.
- Our visible base-case demand outlook for subsea tree units from 2025 to 2029 is estimated at 1,370 units, averaging 274 units per year, representing a 13% increase compared to the annual average over the 2020-2024 period. ExxonMobil and Petrobras will account for 29% of forecast demand, driven by activities in the Stabroek Basin and the Brazilian NOC’s continued investment in its pre-salt Basin.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
