Westwood’s Global Subsea Tree Tracker
Each month, Westwood’s subsea team provides a global update on subsea tree awards, with data sourced from, and analysed using, the new SubseaLogix service. Bookmark this page for regular updates on the health of the subsea oil and gas sector.
Updated – 4th September, 2021
Brazil: In August, Enauta confirmed an order for a subsea tree to Schlumberger-owned subsidiary OneSubsea to be used for the fourth well at its Atlanta development.
South Africa: TotalEnergies is said to be considering an early production system (EPS) to fast track the development of its Luiperd gas condensate discovery with the use of two or three subsea trees tied back to a PetroSA-owned FA fixed platform.
- In August, subsea tree awards were relatively subdued, with only one unit recorded. We have also revised down our 2021 total order intake to reflect Petrobras’ use of existing callout capacity for its Buzios 6-9 project in lieu of “new” awards. This downward revision brings 2021 YTD subsea tree orders to 121 units – versus 138 units last month.
- Key upcoming subsea tree awards to watch for the remainder of 3Q 2021 include Shell’s Whale development in the US GoM, after the operator sanctioned the project in July 2021. Other subsea tree awards anticipated in 3Q are TPOA’s Sarkaya development (Turkey) and PetrioRio’s Wahoo development (Brazil). The Subsea tree award for Siccar Point’s Cambo development (UK) is now expected to be delayed beyond 3Q 2021 due to pending approval from the UK government against a backdrop of significant public protest.
- Our full-year, 2021-2025 subsea tree demand outlook remains unchanged at approximately 1,457 units.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
madeosun@westwoodenergy.com
Updated – 4th August, 2021
Ghana: On the 6th of July, TechnipFMC announced the award of an integrated engineering, procurement, construction and installation (iEPCI) contract for Tullow Oil’s Jubilee South-East project. The contract will see TechnipFMC supply and install all major subsea equipment, including trees, manifolds, controls as well as flexible risers, flowlines and umbilicals.
Norway: On the 9th of July, Aker Solutions secured a contract from Aker BP to supply the subsea production system for its Kobra East Gekko development, including four horizontal subsea trees, three subsea manifolds, control systems and static umbilicals.
- In July, a total of nine subsea tree units were awarded including Aker BP’s Kobra East Gekko, Okea’s Hasselmus and Tullow Oil’s Jubilee South-East developments. This brings 2021 subsea tree order intake YTD to 138 units, accounting for 61% of total anticipated tree demand for the year.
- The key subsea tree contract award to watch for the remainder of 3Q 2021 is arguably Shell’s Whale (USA) which was sanctioned on the 26th July with the official subsea tree contract award still pending. Other anticipated awards this year include Shell’s Crux (Australia), Repsol’s Tain (UK), Siccar Point’s Cambo (UK) and TPAO’s Sakarya (Turkey). Together, these five projects will account for 37 subsea trees.
- Our full-year 2021-2025 subsea tree demand outlook is now estimated at 1,458 units, just a 1% decrease compared to last month’s forecast. This minor downtick is due to the exclusion of subsea trees associated with ENI’s Mamba phase one development as a result of ongoing security concerns in Mozambique.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
madeosun@westwoodenergy.com
Updated – 4th July, 2021
Brazil: Equinor announced a final investment decision (FID) on its Bacalhau field on the 1st of June 2021. This confirms the award of an integrated engineering, procurement, construction & installation (iEPCI) contract to the Subsea Integration Alliance, a joint venture of OneSubsea and Subsea 7, for the supply the 19 subsea trees, associated production equipment and SURF.
Norway: Okea sanctioned its Hasselmus gas discovery on the 1st of June 2021. The field will be developed as a single-well subsea tieback to the Draugen platform.
- In June 2021, subsea tree contracts were confirmed for Equinor’s Bacalhau field, Karoon Energy’s Patola development and Petrobras’ Buzios 6-9 developments all offshore Brazil. Elsewhere, a subsea tree award for Equinor’s Lavrans development offshore Norway was also confirmed. Westwood has now recorded 128 subsea tree orders in the first half of the year, accounting for 56% of total anticipated subsea tree demand in 2021.
- Key upcoming subsea tree contract awards to watch in 3Q 2021 include Shell’s Crux (Australia) and Whale (USA), Aker BP’s Kobra East Gekko, Repsol’s Tain, Siccar Point’s Cambo (UK) and TPAO’s Sakarya (Turkey). These six projects will account for 41 subsea trees.
- Our full year 2021-2025, subsea tree demand outlook is now estimated at 1,466 which represents a 4% (49 units) increase compared to last month’s edition. This increment is mainly attributed to previously stalled projects such as Equinor’s Bay du Nord and Shell’s Bonga SWA development being added to the forecast period.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
madeosun@westwoodenergy.com
Updated – 4th June, 2021
Brazil: Equinor announced a final investment decision (FID) on its Bacalhau field on the 1st of June 2021. This confirms the award of an integrated engineering, procurement, construction & installation (iEPCI) contract to the Subsea Integration Alliance, a joint venture of OneSubsea and Subsea 7, for the supply the 19 subsea trees, associated production equipment and SURF.
Norway: Okea sanctioned its Hasselmus gas discovery on the 1st of June 2021. The field will be developed as a single-well subsea tieback to the Draugen platform.
- No subsea tree awards were announced in May 2021. However, 2Q 2021 subsea tree order intake is still forecast to close at 50 units – a 194% increase YoY, of which Equinor’s Bacalhau (Brazil) and Okea’s Hasselmus (Norway) account for 40% of 2Q 2021 subsea tree forecast, both of which were confirmed on the 1st of June 2021.
- Key projects to watch for the remainder of 2Q 2021 include Shell’s Whale project (USA) and TPAO’s Sakarya development (Turkey), with the latter currently scheduled to start commercial gas production before the end of 2023.
- Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2021-25 period is forecast at approximately 1,328 units, a decrease of 17 units versus Westwood’s May 2021 subsea tree tracker. This reduction is primarily based on revisions to subsea tree demand for Petrobras’s Marlim Revitalisation Project.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
madeosun@westwoodenergy.com
Updated – 4th May, 2021
Brazil: A final investment decision (FID) on Equinor’s Bacalhau field is anticipated in 2Q 2021, having already been delayed in 2020. The Norwegian operator has already issued letters of intent to its chosen contractors for all major work packages associated with the field development with the joint venture of OneSubsea and Subsea 7 awarded the integrated EPCI contract for subsea production systems and SURF, pending FID.
USA: Shell’s Whale development in the US GoM is anticipated to be sanctioned in 2Q 2021 after the project was put on hold by the operator in 2020. The field is expected to contribute more than a dozen subsea trees to 2Q 2021 order intake.
UK: In April, Ithaca Energy sanctioned its Captain Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) project in Block 13/22a of the UK Central North Sea. The project will inject polymerised water into the Captain reservoir and requires several additional subsea trees and associated infrastructure.
- 2Q 2021 subsea tree order intake is estimated at 82 units, accounting for 32% of total 2021 awards – currently forecast at 260 units. Key projects to watch in 2Q 2022 include Equinor’s Bacalhau (Brazil), Shell’s Whale (US GoM), and Total’s Lapa South West (Brazil).
- 2021 “to be awarded” subsea trees are now forecast at approximately 170 units, a 5% decline versus April’s outlook. Compared to last month, 2021 subsea tree orders categorised as “Firm” have increased by 31 to 98 units, as development plans progress and projects move closer to formal contract award. Units categorised as “Probable” now stand at 45 units vs 33 units last month, whilst units in the “Possible” category have reduced by 10 to 23 units reflecting increased confidence in our total 2021 order volume.
- Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2021-25 period is forecast at approximately 1,345 units, no change from Westwood’s April 2021 subsea tree tracker.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
madeosun@westwoodenergy.com
Updated – 4th April, 2021
Norway: On the 25th of March, Aker Solutions was awarded the contract to supply the subsea production system for ConocoPhillips’ Eldfisk North field. The contract includes the provision of 13 standardised vertical subsea trees, wellheads, control systems and three six-slot templates with integrated manifolds.
Australia: Santos took a final investment decision (FID) on its Barossa gas field on the 30th of March 2021. EPC contract agreements were in place prior to FID, with TechnipFMC having been awarded the contract to supply the six subsea tree units in May 2019.
- 1Q 2020 subsea tree order intake closed at 87 units, including 13 units which were awarded in March 2021 to Aker Solutions under a contract for ConocoPhillips’ Eldfisk North field.
- Major contract awards previously anticipated for 1Q 2021 that could drive subsea tree demand in 2Q 2021 include Equinor’s Bacalhau (Brazil) and Ithaca Energy’s Captain EOR (UK). However, Repsol Sinopec’s Montrose Infill Program (UK) has been delayed until 2022.
- Subsea tree demand outlook for the remainder of 2021 is forecast to total 178 units, of which 67 units (37%) are classified as “Firm”, 78 units (44%) as “Probable” and 33 units (19%) classified as “Possible” based on Westwood’s assessment of subsurface, commercial & geopolitical factors.
- Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2021-25 period is forecast at approximately 1,345 units. This represents an upward revision of 4% versus last month’s outlook, driven predominantly by Turkish Petroleum’s (TPAO) Sakarya phased development plan.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
madeosun@westwoodenergy.com
Updated – 4th March, 2021
Malaysia: On the 22nd of February, TechnipFMC announced a contract awarded from Petronas for the FEED & integrated EPCIC of the subsea production system and SURF for the Limbayong field. The workscope includes 10 subsea trees and associated tie-back infrastructure to the Limbayong FPSO.
Israel: On the 23rd of February TechnipFMC confirmed a letter of award (LOA) was issued for the integrated EPCI contract for Energean’s Karish North field.
UK: Tailwind Energy announced a final investment decision on its Evelyn single-well subsea tieback development. TechnipFMC will supply the subsea equipment required for the project.
- Our subsea tree outlook for 2021 is c.240 units, of which 73 units have been awarded as of 1st March 2021. Of the remaining 170 units forecast for 2021, 74 units (44%) are classified as “Firm”, 60 units (35%) as “Probable” and 36 units (21%) are classified as “Possible” based on our assessment of subsurface, commercial & geopolitical factors.
- Major subsea tree contract awards still anticipated in 1Q 2021 include Equinor’s Bacalhau project (Brazil), Ithaca Energy’s Captain EOR (UK), as well as Repsol Sinopec’s Montrose Infill Program (UK).
- Our base-case subsea tree outlook for the 2021-25 period is forecast at approximately 1,300 units. This represents an upward revision of 6% compared to last month’s outlook driven by Total and Apache’s commitment to commence production from its Block 58 fields offshore Suriname by 2025. A revitalised Angola offshore sector driven by improved fiscal incentives and commercial terms will also contribute to the subsea tree demand outlook.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
madeosun@westwoodenergy.com
Updated – 4th February, 2021
Brazil: Petrobras has awarded the contract to supply subsea trees for Buzios VI, VII & VIII. These units will be linked to the Almirante Tamandare, P-78 and P-79 FPSOs. Other major contract awards still anticipated in 1Q 2021 include 19 subsea tree units for Equinor’s Bacalhau project, as well as three units for PetroRio’s Frade.
Egypt: In January, Energean sanctioned the North El Amriya – North Idkunea (NEA-NI) tieback project. TechnipFMC was awarded the EPCIC contract for the development including four subsea trees and the associated SURF equipment.
- Westwood has revised its total 2020 subsea tree order intake from 153 to 170 units after official confirmation that contracts for Petrobras’ Mero III and ENI’s Agogo early production system had been awarded to OneSubsea and Baker Hughes respectively.
- Subsea tree order intake in 2021 has got off to a fast start, with January awards totalling 69 units. This is driven by the award of Petrobras’ Buzios development, Santos’ Bayu Undan Phase IIIc, Energean’s Karish North, as well as the North El Amriya fields, amongst others.
- Visible base-case subsea tree demand over the 2021-25 period is now forecast at 1,224 units (excluding units already ordered this year), averaging approximately 260 units a year. Petrobras is forecast to account for approximately 20% of global tree demand over the forecast period.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
madeosun@westwoodenergy.com
Updated – 4th January, 2021
UK: In December, Chrysaor sanctioned the infill drilling program on the Everest East field offshore UK. The subsea development well will tie-in to an existing manifold and is due to be drilled in 3Q 2021.
Norway: On 17th December, Aker Solutions was awarded the contract to supply one subsea tree for Equinor’s Northern Lights CO2 storage project. AkerBP also took a final investment decision on the Grasel subsea development. Formal contract announcement for the two subsea trees required for the project is currently pending.
- Two subsea tree units contract awards were recorded in December 2020. This brings 2020 total subsea tree orders to close at 153 units, a 33% decline year-on-year.
- Westwood’s current subsea tree demand outlook for 2021 is forecast to total up to 224 units, based on $50/bbl Brent. Of these, 137 units (61%) are classified as “Firm”, 51 units (23%) as “Probable”, and 32 units (16%) classified as “Possible” based on our assessment of subsurface, commercial & geopolitical factors. Major projects to watch in 1Q 2021 includes Equinor’s Bacalhau (Brazil), Petrobras’ Buzios 5 (Brazil) and Ithaca Energy’s Captain EOR project (UK).
- Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2021-25 period is forecast at 1,290 units, averaging approximately 260 units a year. 43% of projected demand is in Latin America where major projects in Brazil’s pre-salt basin and in the Stabroek block offshore Guyana are expected to dominate subsea tree demand in the forecast period.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
madeosun@westwoodenergy.com
Updated – 4th December, 2020
Malaysia: TechnipFMC was awarded the contract to supply eight subsea trees for Shell’s Gumusut Phase III project in 3Q 2020. The order brings the total 2020 subsea tree award count in Malaysia to 18 units.
- No subsea tree contract awards were announced in November. The total order intake for 2020 is now estimated to close at 155 units, 13% more than Westwood’s October outlook driven by Shell’s investment in blocks J & K off Sabah, Malaysia.
- Key projects to watch in 1Q 2021 include Equinor’s Bacalhau (Brazil), Petrobras’s Buzios 5 (Brazil) and Ithaca Energy’s Captain EOR project (UK).
- The base-case subsea tree demand for 2021-24 is now forecast at approximately 1050 units. This is an upward revision of 60 units compared to last month’s outlook. The increase is due to ExxonMobil’s commitment to developing its Yellowtail, Hammerhead and Turbot discoveries in the Stabroek license offshore Guyana.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
madeosun@westwoodenergy.com
Updated – 4th November, 2020
Brazil: Equinor is progressing with its Bacalhau development which will account for 19 subsea trees. The final investment decision which was previously scheduled for 4Q 2020 is now expected in 1H 2021.
USA: LLOG’s Spruance field expected to contribute two subsea trees to 4Q 2020 order intake. First oil is scheduled for early 2022.
- October subsea tree orders totalled 51 units, driven by the official award of ExxonMobil’s Payara and ConocoPhillips’ Tommeliten Alpha fields to TechnipFMC and Aker Solutions respectively. An additional five subsea trees could be ordered by the end of 2020, with 4Q order intake anticipated to total up to 56 units – a 6% increase year-on-year.
- Overall, the total subsea tree order intake for 2020 is now estimated at 137 units, of which 132 have already been formally awarded as of the 31st October.
- Visible base-case subsea tree demand over 2021-24 is now forecast at approximately 990 units. This represents an upward revision of 10 units compared to last month’s outlook.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
madeosun@westwoodenergy.com
Updated – 4th October, 2020
Guyana: ExxonMobil has sanctioned its highly anticipated Payara development. The 41 subsea trees that were pre-ordered with TechnipFMC will now formally proceed to EPCI in October.
Norway: Equinor has awarded Aker Solutions the contract to supply up to 23 subsea trees for its Breidablikk project. Drilling for the initial 15 wells is scheduled to commence in 2Q 2022.
- The award of 23 subsea trees in September for Equinor’s Breidablikk field was the only award in 3Q – a 57% reduction year-on-year.
- Westwood anticipates a significant uptick in activity over 4Q 2020. This will be driven by formal awards for ExxonMobil’s Payara (Guyana) and ConocoPhillips’ Tommeliten Alpha (Norway) fields, both of which were confirmed on the 1st of October. Activity is expected to be further boosted by Equinor’s Bacalhau project (Brazil), however, there is now some uncertainty over the timing of this award following the recent cancellation of an associated drilling rig tender by Equinor.
- Overall, the total subsea tree order intake for 2020 is now estimated at 155 units, of which 81 have already been formally awarded as of the 30th September. This is 55 units up on last month due to the sooner than expected government approval of the Payara production license and subsequent FID by ExxonMobil & partners.
- Visible subsea base-case tree demand over 2021-24 is now forecast at approximately 980 units.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
madeosun@westwoodenergy.com
Updated – 4th September, 2020
Norway: 3Q subsea tree order intake is forecast to be driven by EPC contract awards planned for Equnior’s Breidlablikk and Lysing fields. First oil for both fields is currently scheduled for 2H 2023 and 2H 2021 respectively.
Brazil: Westwood forecast Petrobras will account for 25% of visible subsea tree demand over the 2021-24 period, driven by phase 4 of its pre-salt development plans. The plan comprises 12 individual subsea developments, with a total of over 180 subsea tree units, including Buzios phases 9-12, Sepia phase II and the Sururu field.
- Westwood anticipates a total order intake of 16 subsea trees in 3Q 2020 – a 70% decline year on year. No awards were announced in August 2020.
- Total estimated subsea tree order intake for 2020 has been revised down to c.100 units, of which 60% have already been contracted as of September 4th 2020. Of the estimated c.40 units still anticipated in 2020, 15 are with Equinor’s Breidablikk and 19 with Equinor’s Bacalhau projects. The 2020 subsea tree order intake will fall well below 2016 levels if EPC contract awards for these fields are delayed to after year end.
- The visible five-year subsea tree demand outlook (2020-24) is based on probable projects is forecast to total c.1040 units. This is a 5% upward revision compared to last month’s outlook. Notable additions to the five-year outlook include Woodside’s Browse (Australia), Ithaca Energy’s Captain EOR project (UK) and ENI’s Agogo full field development (Angola).
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
madeosun@westwoodenergy.com
Updated – 4th August, 2020
China: In June, CNOOC awarded OneSubsea the EPC contract for an integrated subsea production system on the Lufeng 22-1 redevelopment. The field will be developed with four subsea trees tied back to the Lufeng 15-1 platform. First oil is currently scheduled for 2H 2022.
Brazil: In July, Petrobras issued a multi-package tender for the supply of 53 subsea trees for the Buzios field, with commercial bids currently scheduled to be submitted in 4Q 2020. These units will be linked to the Almirante Tamandare, P-78 and P-79 FPSOs. Westwood anticipates the contract for this multi-package tender will be awarded over the next 18 months.
Norway: The Norwegian government has reacted to challenging market conditions by introducing tax incentives to support offshore field developments. This move could encourage more FIDs in the Norwegian Continental Shelf over the next few years.
- Westwood anticipates a total of 18 subsea tree orders in 3Q 2020, a 67% decline year on year. No subsea tree contract awards were announced in July 2020.
- Total estimated subsea tree order intake for 2020 remains unchanged at c.110 units, of which 54% have already been contracted as of 4 August 2020. Of the estimated 50 awards still anticipated in 2H 2020, 30% are associated with the letter of intent (LOI) issued by Equinor for the Breidablikk development in June 2020.
- The visible five-year subsea tree demand outlook (2020-24) based on probable and possible projects is forecast at c.983 units – a 2% upward revision compared to last month’s outlook. The recently announced Phase 4 pre-salt basin development strategy by Petrobras has led to an increase in potential subsea tree demand in the later years of the forecast.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
madeosun@westwoodenergy.com
Updated – 4th July, 2020
USA: LLOG sanctioned the development of its Taggart discovery in June 2020. The field will be developed via a two-well subsea tieback to Williams operated Devils Tower Spar. The field is expected to produce an average of 10kbbl/d over 8 years, with first oil expected in 1Q 2022.
Norway: Equinor issued a letter of intent to Aker Solutions for the provision of subsea equipment to develop the Askeladd West (2 subsea trees) and Breidablikk (15 subsea trees) discoveries. Aker Solutions confirmed that the Askeladd West subsea equipment will be delivered under a 2017 frame agreement, whilst the contract award for Breidablikk is subject to field operator and partners taking final investment decision.
- 2Q 2020 subsea tree order intake closed at 8 units (excluding letter of intent) – 3 units lower than Westwood’s projection as of 4th April.
- Total probable subsea tree total order intake for 2020 is now estimated at c.110 units. This represents an 8% downward revision compared to Westwood’s previous projection of 120 trees on 4th June 2020.
- The visible five-year subsea tree demand outlook (2020-24) based on probable and possible projects is forecast at c.965 units – a 7% downward revision compared to last month’s outlook. There is potential upside to the forecast should recently shelved projects such as Woodside Petroleum’s Browse project and Total’s North Platte re-emerge if market conditions improve.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
madeosun@westwoodenergy.com
Updated – 4th June, 2020
Brazil: Petrobras continues to focus its resources on pre-salt basin developments with the Mero-2 subsea production package awarded in 1Q 2020. Submission of commercial bids for the Mero-3 and Buzios subsea packages are still anticipated this year despite challenging market conditions.
Nigeria: In May, Shell indefinitely delayed the submission of commercial bids for its long-delayed Bonga SW project. The field was expected to be developed with 20 subsea trees, with peak production of 175 kboe/d.
China: A preferred bidder for CNOOC’s Lufeng 22-1 has emerged and the official contract award for the four subsea tree development is imminent. First oil is currently expected 2H 2022.
- No subsea tree contract awards were announced in May 2020. The probable total order intake for 2020 is now estimated at c.120 subsea trees, 6% lower than Westwood’s projected number as of 4th May 2020 (130 trees) and the lowest since 2016.
- Subsea tree demand over 2020-24 based on probable and possible contract awards is now forecast to total approximately 1,040 units – a 10% downward revision compared to last month’s outlook.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
madeosun@westwoodenergy.com
Updated – 4th May, 2020
Mozambique: ExxonMobil is working on a new plan to sanction its Mamba project in 2021. ExxonMobil stalled the EPC contract award that was planned for 2020, stating the need to optimise its development plans and explore opportunities related to the current market environment.
Australia: In April, Woodside Petroleum awarded TechnipFMC the iEPCI contract for Greater Western Flank Phase III project. The project consists of 4 subsea wells and a production manifold tied back to existing infrastructure.
USA: Shell has delayed the sanctioning of its Whale project in the US GoM until 2021 which was initially planned to reach FID in the first half of this year. Shell has cited supply chain constraints and uncertain economic conditions as the reason for the delay.
- Total order intake for 2020 is now expected to end at c.130 subsea trees, 31% lower than Westwood’s projected number as of 3rd April 2020 (190 trees). As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to constrict the global energy market, E&Ps continue to exercise caution over sanctioning new developments in the near-term.
- As E&Ps continued to announce a wave of project delays and cancellation in April, Westwood’s visible five-year subsea tree demand (2020-24) based on probable and possible contract awards is now forecast to total approximately 1,120 units – a 3% downward revision compared to last month’s outlook.
- Projects to watch in Q2 are Petrobras’ Mero 2 and Marlim revitalisation. However, continued uncertainty in the market means contract awards could be delayed until later in the year.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
madeosun@westwoodenergy.com
Updated – 3rd April, 2020
Senegal – Woodside Petroleum and its field partners reached FID for the Sangomar field in January 2020. An alliance between Subsea 7 and OneSubsea will deliver the integrated subsea solution, with the offshore campaign expected to take place from 2021 to 2023.
2Q 2020 subsea tree orders are expected to total 22 units. However, the timing of official contract awards could be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Angola – TechnipFMC were awarded the subsea iEPCI contract for the Platina field in Block 18 after BP reached final investment decision for the development late 2019.
- The oil price crash & COVID-19 pandemic has sent subsea tree demand in 2020 into a tailspin, as E&Ps continue to announce capex cuts and project deferrals/cancellations.
- 1Q 2020 subsea tree order intake closed at 34 units – 22 units lower than Westwood’s projection as of 3rd of March. This is due to the continuous delays to the official contract award for Petrobras’ Mero II and the Marlim revitalisation projects in the Santos Basin off Brazil.
- Overall, Westwood’s revised 2020 subsea tree order intake is forecast at c.190 units (including units already ordered in 1Q 2020). This represents a 42% downward revision compared to last month’s projection but still more than double the recorded figure for 2016.
- The visible five-year order outlook (2020-24) is now forecast to total over 1,160 units – a 20% downward revision compared to last month’s outlook.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
madeosun@westwoodenergy.com
Updated – 3rd March, 2020
Norway – Subsea tree order intake over the 2020-2024 period in NW Europe is impacted by Equnior’s decision to re-evaluate its Wisting development due to the high breakeven price.
1Q 2020 – Key awards QTD includes Woodside Petroleum’s Sangomar and Santos’ Van Gogh phase II infill development
Guyana – Delays in the approval of a new regulatory framework has led to the revision of subsea tree contract award timeline for ExxonMobil’s Payara development. Contract award expected in 2Q 2020
- 1Q 2020 subsea tree order intake is expected to total 56 units – as of 3rd March. This is a significant downward revision (51%) from our 3rd Feb projections. ExxonMobil’s Payara FID pushed to 2Q.
- Key projects to watch in 2Q includes ENI’s Mamba, Woodside Petroleum’s Scarborough and Shell’s Whale project.
- Total 2020 subsea tree potential order intake is still projected at over 320 units.
- Visible Five-year potential subsea tree order outlook (2020-24) is now around 290 units a year. This is a 6% downward revision to last month’s outlook.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
madeosun@westwoodenergy.com
Updated – 3rd February, 2020
GoM: TechnipFMC and OneSubsea were awarded industry first 20K subsea trees
114 awards expected in 1Q2020 – a significant YoY and QoQ uptick. Key projects to watch include Mero, Payara and Gumusut Phase III
- 43 tree orders in 4Q2019, down 59 units YoY and resulting in a total 2019 intake of 213 (vs 271 in 2018). 4Q2019 awards were focused in US GoM (Anchor, Shenandoah) and Russia.
- 1Q2020 orders expected to hit 114 – as of 3 Feb, 23 units have been awarded. Total 2020 intake projected at 327.
- Five-year order outlook (2020-24) remains unchanged averaging 310 units a year.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
madeosun@westwoodenergy.com
