Westwood’s Global Subsea Tree Tracker
Each month Westwood’s subsea team provides a global update on subsea tree awards, with data sourced from and analysed using, SubseaLogix. Bookmark this page for regular updates on the health of the subsea oil and gas sector.
Updated – 6th June, 2024
- At the end of May 2024, subsea tree unit awards recorded year-to-date closed at 111 units. Westwood forecasts an additional 161 subsea tree unit awards for the remainder of 2024, of which 35 units have been issued a letter of intent, 88 units classified as “Firm”, 22 units as “Probable”, and 16 units as “Possible”.
- Key subsea tree contract awards to watch for the remainder of 2024 include the award confirmation for TotalEnergies’ Kaminho project offshore Angola and its Block 58 development offshore Suriname, Shell’s Bonga North (Nigeria), Energean’s Katlan development (Israel), for which the operator confirmed the order of long-lead items to maintain the project schedule ahead of a final investment decision (FID) and BP’s Kaskida development in the US GoM.
- Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2024-28 period is forecast at approximately 1,445 units, a marginal increase of 1% compared to last month’s estimates. Given its planned continued investment offshore Guyana and offshore Nigeria, ExxonMobil leads the subsea tree demand by E&Ps over the forecast.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
Updated – 6th May, 2024
- At the end of April 2024, subsea tree unit awards recorded year-to-date closed at 110 units. Major tree awards recorded since last month’s update include the 48 subsea trees awarded to TechnipFMC for Exxon’s Whiptail project offshore Guyana, tree awards for the infill drilling campaign at Equinor’s Troll development and infill drilling of production and water injection wells by ConocoPhillips offshore Norway.
- Key subsea tree contract awards to watch for the remainder of 2Q 2024 include Shell’s Bonga North offshore Nigeria, Energean’s Katlan development (Israel) and ENI’s Maha and Merakes East offshore Indonesia and TotalEnergies’ Kaminho field offshore Angola.
- Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2024-28 period is forecast at approximately 1,430 units, a marginal increase of 1% compared to last month’s estimates.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
Updated – 6th April, 2024
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1Q 2024 subsea tree award announced closed at 13 units, a 28% decline QoQ. Key subsea tree contract awards to watch in 2Q 2024 include Shell’s Bonga North offshore Nigeria, ExxonMobil’s Whiptail development (Guyana), TotalEnergies’ Kaminho (Angola) and subsea tree demand for additional drilling campaign at Equinor’s Troll development offshore Norway.
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Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2024-28 period is forecast at approximately 1,410 units, a marginal increase of less than 1% compared to last month’s estimates.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
Updated – 6th March, 2024
- At the end of February, subsea tree unit awards recorded year to date was 11 units, a 74% decline y-o-y, as E&Ps defer the sanctioning of major projects due to supply chain inflationary pressures. Given this, Westwood now forecasts 2024 subsea tree demand to total just over 260 units, a 9% downward revision compared to last month’s forecast.
- Key subsea tree contract awards to watch for the remainder of 1Q 2024 include Shell’s Bonga North offshore Nigeria, Energean’s Katlan development (Israel) and BP’s Atlantis Phase IV in the US GoM.
- Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2024-28 period is forecast at approximately 1,400 units, averaging approximately 280 units a year.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
Updated – 6th February, 2024
- No subsea tree contract award was announced in January 2024. However, Westwood now forecasts 2024 subsea tree demand to total 290 units, a 4% downward revision compared to last month’s forecast.
- Key upcoming subsea tree contract awards to watch in 1Q 2024 include Shell’s Bonga North offshore Nigeria, Energean’s Katlan development (Israel), Eni’s Merakes East (Indonesia) and Petrobras’ Atapu II and Sepia II development offshore Brazil.
- Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2024-28 period is forecast at 1,440 units, averaging approximately 288 units a year.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
Updated – 8th January, 2024
- 4Q 2023 subsea tree award recorded closed at 18 units, the lowest recorded in a quarter since 2Q 2016. This brings 2023 total subsea tree orders to close at 280 units, an 8% year-on-year decline.
- Westwood’s 2024 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast to total approximately 300 units, the second highest since 2013, only behind awards recorded in 2022, based on a $75-$85/bbl Brent oil price. Of these, 208 units (69%) are classified as “Firm”, 67 units (22%) as “Probable”, and 26 units (9%) classified as “Possible” based on our assessment of subsurface, commercial & geopolitical factors.
- Our full-year 2024-2028 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at approximately 1,500 units, a 25% increase compared to the 2019-2023 period. ExxonMobil and Petrobras will account for a third of forecast demand, driven by ExxonMobil’s Stabroek developments and the Brazilian NOC’s continued investment in its pre-salt basin.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]