Global Subsea Tree Tracker

Westwood’s Global Subsea Tree Tracker

Each month Westwood’s subsea team provides a global update on subsea tree awards, with data sourced from and analysed using, SubseaLogix. Bookmark this page for regular updates on the health of the subsea oil and gas sector.

Updated – 4th August, 2023

• No subsea tree award was announced in July 2023. However, there has been an upward revision of 10 units in Westwood’s 1H 2023 subsea tree award count, with 1H tree orders now closing at 196 units. An additional 86 subsea tree units award is still anticipated for the remainder of 2023.​

• Woodside Energy’s Trion project offshore Mexico, TotalEnergies’ Cameia-Golfinho and Shell’s Sparta development in the US GoM are the highlights for subsea tree contract awards anticipated in 2H 2023. However, smaller-sized projects such as Chariot’s Anchois gas development offshore Morocco and Energean’s plans to develop its Katlan gas discovery offshore Israel will support subsea tree demand for the remainder of 2023. ​

• Our full-year 2023-2027 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at approximately 1,400 units. However, potential upside remains in the latter years of the forecast and beyond, given delayed projects like Pecan Energy’s Pecan development (Ghana), Ithaca Energy’s Cambo(UK), and Woodside Energy’s Greater Sunrise development (Timor Leste) could be considered for sanctioning during the forecast period as field operators continue to evaluate development options whilst seeking governmental approval.

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

Updated – 5th July, 2023

• In 1H 2023, subsea tree awards closed at 186 units, with contracting activities announced in June accounting for 34 units. Mayor contract award announced during the period under review includes the supply of 15 subsea trees by OneSubsea for Petrobras’ Buzios-11, eight deepwater subsea trees to be supplied by Baker Hughes for ENI’s Baleine Phase II development offshore Ivory Coast, as well as a contract from Azule Energy for TechnipFMC to provide the subsea trees required for its Block 18 infill programme offshore Angola. TechnipFMC also announced an iEPCI contract from OMV to develop the Berling gas-condensate field offshore Norway. ​

• Key subsea tree contract awards to watch for in 2H 2023 include Woodside Energy’s Trion project offshore Mexico, following a final investment decision (FID) announced by the operator in June 2023, which is subject to joint venture (JV) approval and regulatory approval of the field development plan (FDP). OMV also announced an FID on its Neptun Deep project in the Black Sea offshore Romania, with the FDP still subject to regulatory approval. In the US GoM, Shell is expected to sanction its Sparta field in 4Q 2023. ​

• Our full-year 2023-2027 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at approximately 1,400 units, with demand offshore Brazil and Guyana set to account for over 28% of forecast demand

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

Updated – 5th June, 2023

• At the end of May 2023, subsea tree unit awards recorded year-to-date closed at 155 units, a 29% year-on-year increase. Major awards announced in May include an integrated engineering, procurement, construction and installation (iEPCI) for TechnipFMC for Equinor’s BM-C-33 project offshore Brazil and Shell’s Dover field in the US GoM. OneSubsea was also awarded an integrated contract with a Subsea 7 and Saipem consortium to develop TPOA’s Sakarya Phase II gas field in the Black Sea offshore Turkey.
• Key subsea tree contract awards to watch for the remainder of 2Q 2023 include Eni’s Baleine phase II development (Ivory Coast) and Woodside Energy’s Trion project (Mexico). ExxonMobil is expected to lead E&P’s subsea tree demand over the forecast period ahead of Petrobras, driven by its field development plans offshore Guyana and Nigeria.
• Our full-year 2023-2027 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at approximately 1,400 units, a 3% increase compared to last month’s forecast. Potential upside remains following the signing of a host government agreement (HGA) and a vital production sharing agreement by Shell and Equnior, creating a pathway for the development of gas reserves in Blocks 1, 2 and 4 offshore Tanzania to feed the proposed 10 to 15 mmpta Tanzania LNG project.

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

Updated – 5th May, 2023

• During the period under review, a total of 65 subsea tree unit awards were recorded, driven by ExxonMobil’s Uaru project (Guyana), TotalEnergies’ Moho Nord infill project (Republic of Congo) and BP’s Raven infill drilling activity offshore Egypt. This brings the 2023 subsea tree unit award count YTD to 141 units, a 25% year-on-year increase.
• Key subsea tree contract awards to watch for the remainder of 2Q 2023 include Eni’s Baleine phase II development (Ivory Coast), Woodside Energy’s Trion project (Mexico) and Equinor’s BM-C-33 project (Brazil).
• Our full-year 2023-2027 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at approximately 1,360 units, a marginal decrease of 1% compared to last month’s forecast driven by the revised subsea tree awards for ExxonMobil’s Uaru project, following the confirmation of 44 subsea tree awards given that the reported expected number of development wells to be drilled from a range between 38 and 63 wells.

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

Updated – 6th April, 2023

• Subsea tree units contract awards in 1Q 2023 closed at 76 units, an 18% QoQ decline but a 23% YoY increase. Key contract announcements in 1Q 2023 include Aker BP’s Utsira High Project (Norway), Azule Energy’s Agogo development (Angola) and Petrobras’ Buzios-10 project (Brazil).
• Key upcoming subsea tree contract awards to watch in 2Q 2023 include ExxonMobil’s Uaru project (Guyana), Petrobras’ Buzios development, Woodside Energy’s Trion field (Mexico) and Eni’s Baleine Phase II project offshore Ivory Coast.
• Our full-year 2023-2027 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at approximately 1,380 units,  a marginal increase of less than 1% compared to last month’s forecast. However, potential upside remains, with Eni reportedly exploring Development Options for its Cyprus Gas Clusters offshore Cyprus, with concept-select and engineering phase underway.

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

Updated – 6th March, 2023

• In February 2023, 45 subsea tree unit awards were recorded, driven by Azule Energy’s Agogo development (Angola), Equinor’s Irpa and Verdande projects (Norway) and Petrobras’ Buzios-10 project (Brazil). This brings the 2023 subsea tree unit award count YTD to 62 units.
• Key upcoming subsea tree contract awards to watch for the remainder of 1Q 2023 include ExxonMobil’s Uaru project (Guyana), which has reportedly had a downward revision on the number of expected development wells to be drilled from a range of between 40 and 76 to between 38 and 63 wells. Westwood also anticipates the sanctioning of Eni’s Baleine Phase II project offshore Ivory Coast before the end of the quarter.
• Our full-year 2023-2027 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at approximately 1,370 units, with stalled projects over the 2020-22 period, such as Eni’s Verus gas field offshore Australia and Shell’s Sparta development in the US GoM now expected to progress within the next 24 months.

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

Updated – 6th February, 2023

• At the end of January 2022, 17 subsea tree unit awards were recorded, driven by the integrated engineering, procurement, construction and installation (iEPCI) Contract awarded to TechnipFMC for Aker BP’s Utsira High Project Offshore Norway. A further review of subsea tree awards in 2022 indicated that total subsea tree unit order intake closed at 290, with Norway accounting for 23%, stemming from plans for development and operations (PDOs) submitted at the end of 2022. Subsea tree contracting activities in Latin America remained robust, with over 100 subsea tree units awarded in 2022.
• Key upcoming subsea tree contract awards to watch in 1Q 2023 include Azule Energy’s Agogo development (Angola), Eni’s Baleine Phase II project (Ivory Coast) and Petrobras’ Buzios-10 development offshore Brazil. Offshore Romania, OMV stated that it is progressing with its Neptune Deep project, with FID planned for mid-2023.
• Our full-year 2023 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at approximately 295 units, with demand over the 2024-2027 period set to average over 270 units year on year.

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

Updated – 4th January, 2023

• Subsea tree units contract awards in 4Q 2022 closed at 81 units, driven by the sanctioning of Aker BP’s Yggdrasil (formerly NOAKA), Valhall PWP-Fenris and Skarv Satellite projects. This brings 2022 total subsea tree orders to close at 294 units, a 79% increase year-on-year.
• Westwood anticipates total subsea tree unit awards in 2023 will total approximately 265 units, of which 41% already have a letter of intent (LOI) issued, 31% of expected awards are classified as “Firm”, 16% as “Probable”, and 12% as “Possible”. Major subsea tree contract awards anticipated in 1Q 2022 include Azule Energy’s Agogo development (Angola), Eni’s Baleine Phase II project (Ivory Coast) and Petrobras’ SEAP development offshore Brazil.
• Our full-year 2023-2027 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at approximately 1,310 units, with sanctioning activities in Africa and the Americas expected to account for over 66% of forecast demand.

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

Updated – 5th December, 2022

• Project delays such as Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil) and Equinor’s Wisting development offshore Norway have significantly impacted subsea tree order intake in 4Q 2022, with announced project delays in the last 30 days accounting for a downward revision of 46 subsea tree units previously expected to be sanctioned in December 2022. Only seven subsea tree unit awards were announced in November 2022, related to BP’s Cypre gas field offshore Trinidad & Tobago.
• Westwood anticipates that 2022 subsea tree order intake will close at approximately 250 units. Key contracts anticipated for December 2022 is for Aker BP’s North of Alvheim Krafla Askja (NOAKA) project, with the operator expected to submit  plans for development and operation (PDO) by mid-December. The Aker BP Subsea Alliance is expected to be formally awarded the subsea production system (SPS) contract following the submission of PDO.
• Our full-year 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at approximately 1,560 units, a marginal decrease of 2% compared to last month’s forecast.

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

Updated – 5th November, 2022

• At the end of October 2022, subsea tree unit awards recorded year to date closed at 215 units. This represents a 51% increase compared to 2021. An additional 81 subsea tree units are anticipated to be awarded before the end of 2022, with 31 units classified as “Firm”, 47 units as “Probable”, and three units as “Possible”.
• Key contracts to watch for the remainder of 4Q 2022 include Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil), Petrobras’ SEAP project (Brazil), as well as Equinor’s Wisting development (Norway). However, despite Equinor’s commitment to take a final investment decision (FID) on its Wisting project at the end of 2022, the EPC awards timeline could be delayed beyond 2022.
• Our full-year 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at approximately 1,590 units, a marginal decrease of 2% compared to last month’s forecast.

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

Updated – 4th October, 2022

• 3Q 2022 subsea tree order intake closed at 38 units, bringing recorded tree awards year to date closed at 183 units. However, announced subsea tree awards for BP’s Cypre development (Trinidad and Tobago) and Shell’s Geronggong development (Malaysia) is imminent, following a final investment decision (FID) on these projects during the period under review.
• In 4Q 2022, subsea tree awards will be dominated by activities offshore Norway, with Equinor’s Wisting development expected to account for 36 subsea tree units, whilst Aker BP’s NOA Fulla project will account for an additional 20 units. Other major awards anticipated before the end of 2022 include Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil) and additional tree award for Petrobras’ Buzios development offshore Brazil.
• Our full-year 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at approximately 1,560 units, a marginal decrease of 1% compared to last month’s forecast.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th September, 2022

• At the end of August 2022, subsea tree unit awards recorded year to date closed at 160 units. Major awards since the start of 2Q include Beacon Offshore’s Winterfell Phase I (USA), Aker BP’s Trell & Trine (Norway) and TotalEnergies’ Begonia (Angola). An additional 122 units could be awarded before the end of 2022, with Norway accounting for 50% of the anticipated subsea tree award.
• Westwood still anticipates the subsea tree award for Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil) in 3Q 2022. However, the tree award for BW Energy’s Maromba Phase 1 (Brazil) could be delayed beyond 2022, given environmental approval by IBAMA is still pending, whilst a final investment decision (FID) is subject to the completion of project financing activities.
• Our full-year 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at approximately 1,580 units. This represents a marginal 2% increase compared to last month’s forecast, predominantly driven by planned infill drilling at TotalEnergies’ Akpo and Egina fields offshore Nigeria.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th August, 2022

• At the end of July 2022, subsea tree units awards recorded year to date closed at 158 units. This represents 60% of the forecast subsea tree award for 2022, of which an additional four units have been pre-ordered, 36 units classified as “Firm”, 57 units as “Probable”, and ten units as “Possible”.
• Key subsea tree contract awards to watch for the remainder of 3Q 2022 include Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil) and BW Energy’s Maromba Phase 1 (Brazil). However, the previously anticipated award for Woodside Energy’s Trion (Mexico) has now been delayed until 2023. Woodside further stated that front-end engineering and design (FEED) activities are continuing, focusing on optimising the development and execution plan, cost, and development schedule.
• Our full-year 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at approximately 1,550 units. This represents an upward revision of 10 units, following BP’s decision to reactive development plans for the Palas, Astrea and Juno (PAJ) oil fields in Block 31 offshore Angola. The PAJ development will now be operated by the newly formed Azule Energy, the 50/50 joint venture (JV) between BP and ENI, which combined the two companies’ Angolan business.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 5th July, 2022

• In June 2022, only the CLOV phase 3 subsea tree contract was announced, which involves up to five subsea trees. This brings the total subsea tree unit award count for 1H 2022 to 123 units, a 42% decline compared to our January 2022 outlook. This decline is due to delays in project sanctioning, as some operators remodel project economics due to supply chain inflationary pressures. Projects delayed include Equinor’s Rosebank (UK) and TotalEnergies’ Cameia-Golfinho (Angola), whilst Aker Energy’s Pecan project (Ghana) was shelved indefinitely due to concerns over possible future Western sanctions against Lukoil, who holds a 38% stake in the field.
• Key subsea tree contract awards to watch in 3Q 2022 include Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil), BW Energy’s Maromba Phase 1 (Brazil), as well as Woodside Energy’s Trion (Mexico).
• Our full-year 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook remains unchanged at approximately 1,540 units. However, subsea trees expected to be awarded for Shell’s Linnorm field offshore Norway has been excluded from the forecast, as the operator is now re-evaluating alternative development plans after it decided against a standalone development for the gas field.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th June, 2022

• In May 2022, only seven subsea tree units were recorded, driven by Equinor’s Haltenbanken East (Halten East) subsea development offshore Norway. This brings the 2022 subsea tree unit award count YTD to 112 units, a 72% increase year on year.
• Key subsea tree contract awards to watch for the remainder of 2H 2022 include Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil), Equinor’s NOA Fulla and Wisting projects offshore Norway, as well as Woodside Energy’s Trion (Mexico). However, the latter could be delayed due to the recently completed merger of BHP’s oil and gas portfolio with Woodside.
• Our full-year 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is currently at 1,540 units, a 1% marginal increase compared to last month’s forecast, given Shell’s intention to launch an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) tender to accelerate the development timeline of its Bonga North project offshore Nigeria.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th May, 2022

• In April 2022, 54 subsea tree units were recorded, driven by TechnipFMC’s confirmation that it received notice to proceed from ExxonMobil for the Yellowtail development, which involves the supply of 51 subsea trees, as well as an iEPCI contract award for Wintershall’s Maria revitalization project offshore Norway.
• Westwood has revised its 1Q 2022 subsea tree award to 51 units, driven by the award of long-lead items for PetroRio’s activities offshore Brazil and the commencement of planned infill drilling activity in the US GoM. Key upcoming subsea tree contract awards for the remainder of 2Q 2022 include Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil) and Chevron’s Ballymore (USA).
• Our full-year 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is currently at 1,525 units, a 2% increase compared to last month’s forecast, given an increase in expected subsea tree demand for Exxon’s Uaru development offshore Guyana, which calls for between 40 and 76 development wells.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th April, 2022

• 1Q 2022 subsea tree order intake closed at 19 units. However, 2Q 2022 got up to a fast start with 51 subsea tree awards confirmed for ExxonMobil’s Yellowtail development following governmental approval and a final investment decision on the project. This brings the 2022 subsea tree unit award count YTD to 70 units, 27% of full-year anticipated awards.
• Key upcoming subsea tree contract awards to watch in 2Q 2022 include Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil) which was previously expected to be awarded in 1Q 2021, Chevron’s Ballymore (USA) and TotalEnergies’ Lapa South-West (Brazil).
• Our full-year 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is currently at 1,490 units, a marginal increase of 1% compared to last month’s forecast.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th April, 2022

• 1Q 2022 subsea tree order intake closed at 19 units. However, 2Q 2022 got up to a fast start with 51 subsea tree awards confirmed for ExxonMobil’s Yellowtail development following governmental approval and a final investment decision on the project. This brings the 2022 subsea tree unit award count YTD to 70 units, 27% of full-year anticipated awards.
• Key upcoming subsea tree contract awards to watch in 2Q 2022 include Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil) which was previously expected to be awarded in 1Q 2021, Chevron’s Ballymore (USA) and TotalEnergies’ Lapa South-West (Brazil).
• Our full-year 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is currently at 1,490 units, a marginal increase of 1% compared to last month’s forecast.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th March, 2022

• In February, subsea tree order intake was subdued, with only four units recorded, accounting for the subsea tree awarded year to date. However, Westwood has classified 65 units with the “Pre-Order” status, driven by CNOOC’s Lingshui 25-1 (China), Exxon’s Yellowtail development offshore Guyana and Chariot’s Anchois offshore Morocco.
• Major projects to watch for the remainder of 1Q 2021 include Shell’s Gato do Mato, Enauta’s Atlanta field and the formal subsea tree award for CNOOC’s Lingshui 25-1.
• Our full-year, 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is currently at 1,475 units, a marginal increase of less than 1% compared to last month’s forecast.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th February, 2022

• No subsea tree awards were announced in January 2022. However, Industry sources have identified Baker Hughes as the preferred bidder to supply the required subsea trees for CNOOC’s Lingshui 25-1 development.
• Major projects to watch in 1Q 2021 include Shell’s Gato do Mato, Enauta’s Atlanta field, TotalEnergies’ North Platte development (USA) and its Lapa South West project (Brazil).
• Our full-year, 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is currently at 1,465 units, a 6% increase compared to last month’s forecast. This uptick is driven predominantly by CNOOC’s development plan for its shallow water Qinhuangdao (QHD) 29-2 field located in Bohai Bay offshore China.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th January, 2022

• No subsea tree awards were announced in December 2021. However, Westwood revised the number of subsea trees recorded for November by three units, consequently decreasing 2021 total subsea tree award to 173 units, a 9% decline year-on-year.
• Westwood’s current subsea tree demand outlook for 2022 is forecast to total up to 354 units, the highest since 2013 based on $65/bbl Brent. Of these, 173 units (49%) are classified as “Firm”, 125 units (35%) as “Probable”, and 56 units (16%) classified as “Possible” based on our assessment of subsurface, commercial & geopolitical factors. Included in the tree awards anticipated in 2022 are 53 units (15%) that have already been awarded but are subject to governmental approvals and a final investment decision on the respective fields.
• Major projects to watch in 1Q 2021 include CNOOC’s Lingshui 25-1 (China), TotalEnergies’ North Platte development (USA) and its Lapa South West project (Brazil).
• Our full-year, 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is currently at 1,380 units, a 25% increase compared to the 2017-2021 period. Latin America is forecast to account for approximately 36%, driven by Petrobras’ continued investment in its pre-salt basin and ExxonMobil’s Stabroek developments.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th December, 2021

• In November 2021, a total of 21 subsea tree units were awarded, driven by Petrobras’ Mero 4 development offshore Brazil and Woodside’s Scarborough project offshore Australia. This brings the 2021 subsea tree unit award count YTD to 176 units, 91% of full-year anticipated units.
• Westwood’s 2021 full-year outlook subsea tree order intake is forecast to close at 194 units, a 12% downward revision compared to our full-year estimate as of January 2021. Key contract award announcements still anticipated before the end of 2021 include CNOOC’s Lingshui 25-1, which is currently in the bid clarification process and PetroRio’s Wahoo field offshore Brazil.
• Our full-year, 2021-2025 subsea tree demand outlook is now at 1,458 units, a 1% downward revision compared to last month’s forecast predominantly due to the exclusion of subsea trees associated with Siccar Point Energy’s Cambo development offshore UK, due to Shell’s decision not to invest in the field as this time.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th November, 2021

• No subsea tree awards were announced in October 2021. However, Westwood has revised the number of subsea trees recorded for September, consequently increasing year-to-date orders to 138 units from 131 units as a result of the iEPCI contract award for TPAO’s Sakarya subsea production equipment offshore Turkey.
• Westwood has revised its 2021 full-year subsea tree award to 189 units from 211 units reported in September. This is due to the anticipated delays to Subsea EPC contract award on major projects such as Siccar Point Energy’s Cambo field (UK) and LLOG’s Leon-Moccasin development (USA). Major awards still expected before the end of 2021 include CNOOC’s Lingshui 25-1 field (China) and Woodside’s Scarborough development offshore Australia.
• Our full-year, 2021-2025 subsea tree demand outlook is now at 1,476 units, approximately 39% of these are attributed to projects offshore Latin America.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th October, 2021

• In September, only two subsea tree awards were recorded, closing 3Q 2021 order intake at 22 units, a 52% decrease year-on-year. Westwood has revised the number of subsea trees recorded for July, consequently increasing 2021 year-to-date awards to 131 units from the 121 units reported last month.
• Based on reported development plans, subsea tree contract awards in 4Q 2021 are estimated to total 80 units, driven by 14 projects. Of the 80 units anticipated, Westwood has classified 39 units as “Firm”, 27 units as “Probable” and 14 units as “Possible”. Major awards to watch in 4Q 2021 include Shell’s Whale (USA) which is still awaiting a formal subsea tree award announcement after the project was sanctioned back in July 2021, TPAO’s Sakarya (Turkey), CNOOC’s Lingshui 25-1 (China), Woodside’s Scarborough (Australia), and LLOG’s Leon & Moccasin project in the US GoM.
• Our full-year, 2021-2025 subsea tree demand outlook has increased from 1,457 to 1,480 units driven predominantly by ENI’s planned Baleine fast-track development offshore Ivory Coast and Harbour Energy’s Tuna project offshore Indonesia.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th September, 2021

• In August, subsea tree awards were relatively subdued, with only one unit recorded. We have also revised down our 2021 total order intake to reflect Petrobras’ use of existing callout capacity for its Buzios 6-9 project in lieu of “new” awards. This downward revision brings 2021 YTD subsea tree orders to 121 units – versus 138 units last month.
• Key upcoming subsea tree awards to watch for the remainder of 3Q 2021 include Shell’s Whale development in the US GoM, after the operator sanctioned the project in July 2021. Other subsea tree awards anticipated in 3Q are TPOA’s Sarkaya development (Turkey) and PetrioRio’s Wahoo development (Brazil). The Subsea tree award for Siccar Point’s Cambo development (UK) is now expected to be delayed beyond 3Q 2021 due to pending approval from the UK government against a backdrop of significant public protest.
• Our full-year, 2021-2025 subsea tree demand outlook remains unchanged at approximately 1,457 units.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th August, 2021

• In July, a total of nine subsea tree units were awarded including Aker BP’s Kobra East Gekko, Okea’s Hasselmus and Tullow Oil’s Jubilee South-East developments. This brings 2021 subsea tree order intake YTD to 138 units, accounting for 61% of total anticipated tree demand for the year.
• The key subsea tree contract award to watch for the remainder of 3Q 2021 is arguably Shell’s Whale (USA) which was sanctioned on the 26th July with the official subsea tree contract award still pending. Other anticipated awards this year include Shell’s Crux (Australia), Repsol’s Tain (UK), Siccar Point’s Cambo (UK) and TPAO’s Sakarya (Turkey). Together, these five projects will account for 37 subsea trees.
• Our full-year 2021-2025 subsea tree demand outlook is now estimated at 1,458 units, just a 1% decrease compared to last month’s forecast. This minor downtick is due to the exclusion of subsea trees associated with ENI’s Mamba phase one development as a result of ongoing security concerns in Mozambique.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th July, 2021

• In June 2021, subsea tree contracts were confirmed for Equinor’s Bacalhau field, Karoon Energy’s Patola development and Petrobras’ Buzios 6-9 developments all offshore Brazil. Elsewhere, a subsea tree award for Equinor’s Lavrans development offshore Norway was also confirmed. Westwood has now recorded 128 subsea tree orders in the first half of the year, accounting for 56% of total anticipated subsea tree demand in 2021.
• Key upcoming subsea tree contract awards to watch in 3Q 2021 include Shell’s Crux (Australia) and Whale (USA), Aker BP’s Kobra East Gekko, Repsol’s Tain, Siccar Point’s Cambo (UK) and TPAO’s Sakarya (Turkey). These six projects will account for 41 subsea trees.
• Our full year 2021-2025, subsea tree demand outlook is now estimated at 1,466 which represents a 4% (49 units) increase compared to last month’s edition. This increment is mainly attributed to previously stalled projects such as Equinor’s Bay du Nord and Shell’s Bonga SWA development being added to the forecast period.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th June, 2021

• No subsea tree awards were announced in May 2021. However, 2Q 2021 subsea tree order intake is still forecast to close at 50 units – a 194% increase YoY, of which Equinor’s Bacalhau (Brazil) and Okea’s Hasselmus (Norway) account for 40% of 2Q 2021 subsea tree forecast, both of which were confirmed on the 1st of June 2021.
• Key projects to watch for the remainder of 2Q 2021 include Shell’s Whale project (USA) and TPAO’s Sakarya development (Turkey), with the latter currently scheduled to start commercial gas production before the end of 2023.
• Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2021-25 period is forecast at approximately 1,328 units, a decrease of 17 units versus Westwood’s May 2021 subsea tree tracker. This reduction is primarily based on revisions to subsea tree demand for Petrobras’s Marlim Revitalisation Project.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th May, 2021

• 2Q 2021 subsea tree order intake is estimated at 82 units, accounting for 32% of total 2021 awards – currently forecast at 260 units. Key projects to watch in 2Q 2021 include Equinor’s Bacalhau (Brazil), Shell’s Whale (US GoM), and Total’s Lapa South West (Brazil).
• 2021 “to be awarded” subsea trees are now forecast at approximately 170 units, a 5% decline versus April’s outlook. Compared to last month, 2021 subsea tree orders categorised as “Firm” have increased by 31 to 98 units, as development plans progress and projects move closer to formal contract award. Units categorised as “Probable” now stand at 45 units vs 33 units last month, whilst units in the “Possible” category have reduced by 10 to 23 units reflecting increased confidence in our total 2021 order volume.
• Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2021-25 period is forecast at approximately 1,345 units, no change from Westwood’s April 2021 subsea tree tracker.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th April, 2021

• 1Q 2020 subsea tree order intake closed at 87 units, including 13 units which were awarded in March 2021 to Aker Solutions under a contract for ConocoPhillips’ Eldfisk North field.
• Major contract awards previously anticipated for 1Q 2021 that could drive subsea tree demand in 2Q 2021 include Equinor’s Bacalhau (Brazil) and Ithaca Energy’s Captain EOR (UK). However, Repsol Sinopec’s Montrose Infill Program (UK) has been delayed until 2022.
• Subsea tree demand outlook for the remainder of 2021 is forecast to total 178 units, of which 67 units (37%) are classified as “Firm”, 78 units (44%) as “Probable” and 33 units (19%) classified as “Possible” based on Westwood’s assessment of subsurface, commercial & geopolitical factors.
• Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2021-25 period is forecast at approximately 1,345 units. This represents an upward revision of 4% versus last month’s outlook, driven predominantly by Turkish Petroleum’s (TPAO) Sakarya phased development plan.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th March, 2021

• Our subsea tree outlook for 2021 is c.240 units, of which 73 units have been awarded as of 1st March 2021. Of the remaining 170 units forecast for 2021, 74 units (44%) are classified as “Firm”, 60 units (35%) as “Probable” and 36 units (21%) are classified as “Possible” based on our assessment of subsurface, commercial & geopolitical factors.
• Major subsea tree contract awards still anticipated in 1Q 2021 include Equinor’s Bacalhau project (Brazil), Ithaca Energy’s Captain EOR (UK), as well as Repsol Sinopec’s Montrose Infill Program (UK).
• Our base-case subsea tree outlook for the 2021-25 period is forecast at approximately 1,300 units. This represents an upward revision of 6% compared to last month’s outlook driven by Total and Apache’s commitment to commence production from its Block 58 fields offshore Suriname by 2025. A revitalised Angola offshore sector driven by improved fiscal incentives and commercial terms will also contribute to the subsea tree demand outlook.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th February, 2021

• Westwood has revised its total 2020 subsea tree order intake from 153 to 170 units after official confirmation that contracts for Petrobras’ Mero III and ENI’s Agogo early production system had been awarded to OneSubsea and Baker Hughes respectively.
• Subsea tree order intake in 2021 has got off to a fast start, with January awards totalling 69 units. This is driven by the award of Petrobras’ Buzios development, Santos’ Bayu Undan Phase IIIc, Energean’s Karish North, as well as the North El Amriya fields, amongst others.
• Visible base-case subsea tree demand over the 2021-25 period is now forecast at  1,224 units (excluding units already ordered this year), averaging approximately 260 units a year. Petrobras is forecast to account for approximately 20% of global tree demand over the forecast period.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th January, 2021

• Two subsea tree units contract awards were recorded in December 2020. This brings 2020 total subsea tree orders to close at 153 units, a 33% decline year-on-year.
• Westwood’s current subsea tree demand outlook for 2021 is forecast to total up to 224 units, based on $50/bbl Brent. Of these, 137 units (61%) are classified as “Firm”, 51 units (23%) as “Probable”, and 32 units (16%) classified as “Possible” based on our assessment of subsurface, commercial & geopolitical factors. Major projects to watch in 1Q 2021 includes Equinor’s Bacalhau (Brazil), Petrobras’ Buzios 5 (Brazil) and Ithaca Energy’s Captain EOR project (UK).
• Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2021-25 period is forecast at 1,290 units, averaging approximately 260 units a year. 43% of projected demand is in Latin America where major projects in Brazil’s pre-salt basin and in the Stabroek block offshore Guyana are expected to dominate subsea tree demand in the forecast period.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th December, 2020

• No subsea tree contract awards were announced in November. The total order intake for 2020 is now estimated to close at 155 units, 13% more than Westwood’s October outlook driven by Shell’s investment in blocks J & K off Sabah, Malaysia.
• Key projects to watch in 1Q 2021 include Equinor’s Bacalhau (Brazil), Petrobras’s Buzios 5 (Brazil) and Ithaca Energy’s Captain EOR project (UK).
• The base-case subsea tree demand for 2021-24 is now forecast at approximately 1050 units. This is an upward revision of 60 units compared to last month’s outlook. The increase is due to ExxonMobil’s commitment to developing its Yellowtail, Hammerhead and Turbot discoveries in the Stabroek license offshore Guyana.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th November, 2020

• October subsea tree orders totalled 51 units, driven by the official award of ExxonMobil’s Payara and ConocoPhillips’ Tommeliten Alpha fields to TechnipFMC and Aker Solutions respectively. An additional five subsea trees could be ordered by the end of 2020, with 4Q order intake anticipated to total up to 56 units – a 6% increase year-on-year.
• Overall, the total subsea tree order intake for 2020 is now estimated at 137 units, of which 132 have already been formally awarded as of the 31st October.
• Visible base-case subsea tree demand over 2021-24 is now forecast at approximately 990 units. This represents an upward revision of 10 units compared to last month’s outlook.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th October, 2020

• The award of 23 subsea trees in September for Equinor’s Breidablikk field was the only award in 3Q – a 57% reduction year-on-year.
• Westwood anticipates a significant uptick in activity over 4Q 2020. This will be driven by formal awards for ExxonMobil’s Payara (Guyana) and ConocoPhillips’ Tommeliten Alpha (Norway) fields, both of which were confirmed on the 1st of October. Activity is expected to be further boosted by Equinor’s Bacalhau project (Brazil), however, there is now some uncertainty over the timing of this award following the recent cancellation of an associated drilling rig tender by Equinor.
• Overall, the total subsea tree order intake for 2020 is now estimated at 155 units, of which 81 have already been formally awarded as of the 30th September. This is 55 units up on last month due to the sooner than expected government approval of the Payara production license and subsequent FID by ExxonMobil & partners.
• Visible subsea base-case tree demand over 2021-24 is now forecast at approximately 980 units.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th September, 2020

• Westwood anticipates a total order intake of 16 subsea trees in 3Q 2020 – a 70% decline year on year. No awards were announced in August 2020.
• Total estimated subsea tree order intake for 2020 has been revised down to c.100 units, of which 60% have already been contracted as of September 4th 2020. Of the estimated c.40 units still anticipated in 2020, 15 are with Equinor’s Breidablikk and 19 with Equinor’s Bacalhau projects. The 2020 subsea tree order intake will fall well below 2016 levels if EPC contract awards for these fields are delayed to after year end.
• The visible five-year subsea tree demand outlook (2020-24) is based on probable projects is forecast to total c.1040 units. This is a 5% upward revision compared to last month’s outlook. Notable additions to the five-year outlook include Woodside’s Browse (Australia), Ithaca Energy’s Captain EOR project (UK) and ENI’s Agogo full field development (Angola).

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th August, 2020

• Westwood anticipates a total of 18 subsea tree orders  in 3Q 2020, a 67% decline year on year. No subsea tree contract awards were announced in July 2020.
• Total estimated subsea tree order intake for 2020 remains unchanged at c.110 units, of which 54% have already been contracted as of 4 August 2020. Of the estimated 50 awards still anticipated in 2H 2020, 30% are associated with the letter of intent (LOI) issued by Equinor for the Breidablikk development in June 2020.
• The visible five-year subsea tree demand outlook (2020-24) based on probable and possible projects is forecast at c.983 units – a 2% upward revision compared to last month’s outlook. The recently announced Phase 4 pre-salt basin development strategy by Petrobras has led to an increase in potential subsea tree demand in the later years of the forecast.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th July, 2020

• 2Q 2020 subsea tree order intake closed at 8 units (excluding letter of intent) – 3 units lower than Westwood’s projection as of 4th April.
• Total probable subsea tree total order intake for 2020 is now estimated at c.110 units. This represents an 8% downward revision compared to Westwood’s previous projection of 120 trees  on 4th June 2020.
• The visible five-year subsea tree demand outlook (2020-24) based on probable and possible projects is forecast at c.965 units – a 7% downward revision compared to last month’s outlook. There is potential upside to the forecast should recently shelved projects such as Woodside Petroleum’s Browse project and Total’s North Platte re-emerge if market conditions improve.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th June, 2020

• No subsea tree contract awards were announced in May 2020. The probable total order intake for 2020 is now estimated at c.120 subsea trees, 6% lower than Westwood’s projected number as of 4th May 2020 (130 trees) and the lowest since 2016.
• Subsea tree demand over 2020-24 based on probable and possible contract awards is now forecast to total approximately 1,040 units – a 10% downward revision compared to last month’s outlook.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 4th May, 2020

• Total order intake for 2020 is now expected to end at c.130 subsea trees,  31% lower than Westwood’s projected number as of 3rd April 2020 (190 trees).  As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to constrict the global energy market, E&Ps continue to exercise caution over sanctioning new developments in the near-term.
• As E&Ps continued to announce a wave of project delays and cancellation in April, Westwood’s visible five-year subsea tree demand (2020-24) based on probable and possible contract awards is now forecast to total approximately 1,120 units – a 3% downward revision compared to last month’s outlook.
• Projects to watch in Q2 are Petrobras’ Mero 2 and Marlim revitalisation. However, continued uncertainty in the market means contract awards could be delayed until later in the year.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 3rd April, 2020

• The oil price crash & COVID-19 pandemic has sent subsea tree demand in 2020 into a tailspin, as E&Ps continue to announce capex cuts and project deferrals/cancellations.
• 1Q 2020 subsea tree order intake closed at 34 units – 22 units lower than Westwood’s projection as of 3rd of March. This is due to the continuous delays to the official contract award for Petrobras’ Mero II and the Marlim revitalisation projects in the Santos Basin off Brazil.
• Overall, Westwood’s revised 2020  subsea tree order intake is forecast at c.190 units  (including units already ordered in 1Q 2020). This represents a 42% downward revision compared to last month’s projection but still more than double the recorded figure for 2016.
• The visible five-year order outlook (2020-24) is now forecast to total over 1,160 units – a 20% downward revision compared to last month’s outlook.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 3rd March, 2020

• 1Q 2020 subsea tree order intake is expected to total 56 units – as of 3rd March. This is a significant downward revision (51%) from our 3rd Feb projections. ExxonMobil’s Payara FID pushed to 2Q. ​
• ​Key projects to watch in 2Q includes ENI’s Mamba, Woodside Petroleum’s Scarborough and Shell’s Whale project.​
• Total 2020 subsea tree potential order intake is still projected at over 320 units.​
• ​Visible Five-year potential subsea tree order outlook (2020-24) is now around 290 units a year. This is a 6% downward revision to last month’s outlook.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]

Updated – 3rd February, 2020

• 43 tree orders in 4Q2019, down 59 units YoY and resulting in a total 2019 intake of 213 (vs 271 in 2018). 4Q2019 awards were focused in US GoM (Anchor, Shenandoah) and Russia.
• 1Q2020 orders expected to hit 114 – as of 3 Feb, 23 units have been awarded. Total 2020 intake projected at 327.
• Five-year order outlook (2020-24) remains unchanged averaging 310 units a year.

Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]