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Westwood’s Global Subsea Tree Tracker

Each month Westwood’s subsea team provides a global update on subsea tree awards, with data sourced from and analysed using, SubseaLogix. Bookmark this page for regular updates on the health of the subsea oil and gas sector.

View 2023 Data

Updated – 6th March, 2024

Subsea Tree Tracker March 2024
Mexico: Repsol has revised its development timeline for its Chinwol and Polok fields, with FID now planned for 2025 and first oil anticipated in 2028.
US: TechnipFMC announced an iEPCI contract award for Shell’s Sparta development. TechnipFMC will manufacture and install the subsea production systems, umbilicals, risers, and flowlines.
  • At the end of February, subsea tree unit awards recorded year to date was 11 units, a 74% decline y-o-y, as E&Ps defer the sanctioning of major projects due to supply chain inflationary pressures. Given this, Westwood now forecasts 2024 subsea tree demand to total just over 260 units, a 9% downward revision compared to last month’s forecast.
  • Key subsea tree contract awards to watch for the remainder of 1Q 2024 include Shell’s Bonga North offshore Nigeria, Energean’s Katlan development (Israel) and BP’s Atlantis Phase IV in the US GoM.
  • Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2024-28 period is forecast at approximately 1,400 units, averaging approximately 280 units a year.

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

Updated – 6th February, 2024

Subsea Tree Tracker February 2024
Australia: In its 4Q 2023 report published on 24 January 2024, Woodside Energy stated that the North West Shelf (NWS) project participants had taken a final investment decision (FID) on the Lambert West project.
UK: Shell announced it had taken a final investment decision (FID) on the Victory gas field. The development will feature a single subsea well tieback to the existing Greater Laggan Area system infrastructure via a new 16km pipeline. 
US: BP sanctioned its three-well subsea tieback Mad Dog SouthWest Extension project.
  • No subsea tree contract award was announced in January 2024. However, Westwood now forecasts 2024 subsea tree demand to total 290 units, a 4% downward revision compared to last month’s forecast.
  • Key upcoming subsea tree contract awards to watch in 1Q 2024 include Shell’s Bonga North offshore Nigeria, Energean’s Katlan development (Israel), Eni’s Merakes East (Indonesia) and Petrobras’ Atapu II and Sepia II development offshore Brazil.
  • Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2024-28 period is forecast at 1,440 units, averaging approximately 288 units a year.

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

Updated – 8th January, 2024

Subsea Tree Tracker January 2024
US: On 19 December 2023, Shell announced a final investment decision (FID) on its Sparta deepwater development. The field is expected to reach peak production of approximately 90kboepd, with first production expected in 2028.
US: Shell sanctioned a phased drilling campaign at its Great White development, comprising three new subsea wells. The wells are expected to be completed in April 2025 and will produce 22kboepd at peak.
Australia: Baker Hughes announced a 20-year framework agreement to supply its Aptara subsea production systems for Chevron Australia’s future offshore developments. The subsea production system includes subsea trees, wellheads and control systems.
  • 4Q 2023 subsea tree award recorded closed at 18 units, the lowest recorded in a quarter since 2Q 2016. This brings 2023 total subsea tree orders to close at 280 units, an 8% year-on-year decline.
  • Westwood’s 2024 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast to total approximately 300 units, the second highest since 2013, only behind awards recorded in 2022, based on a $75-$85/bbl Brent oil price. Of these, 208 units (69%) are classified as “Firm”, 67 units (22%) as “Probable”, and 26 units (9%) classified as “Possible” based on our assessment of subsurface, commercial & geopolitical factors.
  • Our full-year 2024-2028 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at approximately 1,500 units, a 25% increase compared to the 2019-2023 period. ExxonMobil and Petrobras will account for a third of forecast demand, driven by ExxonMobil’s Stabroek developments and the Brazilian NOC’s continued investment in its pre-salt basin.

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]