Westwood’s Global Subsea Tree Tracker 2021
Each month Westwood’s subsea team provides a global update on subsea tree awards, with data sourced from and analysed using, SubseaLogix. Bookmark this page for regular updates on the health of the subsea oil and gas sector.
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Westwood’s full-year 2021 subsea tree unit awards closed at approximately 165 units globally, with Petrobras accounting for 32%, the highest amongst field operators during the year under review. 21 subsea tree unit awards announced in 4Q 2021 were driven by Petrobras’ Mero 4 development offshore Brazil and Woodside’s Scarborough project offshore Australia. Major projects to watch in 1Q 2022 include CNOOC’s Lingshui 25-1 (China), TotalEnergies’ North Platte development (USA) and its Lapa South West project (Brazil). Westwood’s full-year 2021-2025 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at 1,458 units, with a nominal 1% downward revision due to the exclusion of subsea trees associated with Siccar Point Energy’s Cambo development offshore UK, following Shell’s decision not to invest in the field as this time.
Updated – 4th December, 2021
Brazil: On 18 November, Aker Solutions announced a contract award from Petrobras to provide a subsea production system and related services for the Mero 4 project. Aker Solutions’ work scope includes the supply of 13 vertical subsea trees, subsea distribution units, subsea control modules and related tie-in equipment.
Australia: Woodside announced a final investment decision (FID) on its Scarborough project on 22 November 2021. The confirmed the engineering, procurement, construction & installation (EPCI) contract award to the Subsea Integration Alliance, a joint venture of OneSubsea and Subsea 7, for the supply of eight subsea trees, associated production equipment and SURF.
Guyana: On 15 November, TechnipFMC has announced an award from ExxonMobil for the supply of 51 enhanced vertical deepwater trees (EVDT) and associated tooling, 12 subsea manifolds, associated controls and tie-in equipment for the Yellowtail development. However, TechnipFMC stated that the contract award will not be included in its inbound orders until FID has been taken and government approval received. Given this, Westwood has not included this award in its November 2021 subsea tree award count.
- In November 2021, a total of 21 subsea tree units were awarded, driven by Petrobras’ Mero 4 development offshore Brazil and Woodside’s Scarborough project offshore Australia. This brings the 2021 subsea tree unit award count YTD to 176 units, 91% of full-year anticipated units.
- Westwood’s 2021 full-year outlook subsea tree order intake is forecast to close at 194 units, a 12% downward revision compared to our full-year estimate as of January 2021. Key contract award announcements still anticipated before the end of 2021 include CNOOC’s Lingshui 25-1, which is currently in the bid clarification process and PetroRio’s Wahoo field offshore Brazil.
- Our full-year, 2021-2025 subsea tree demand outlook is now at 1,458 units, a 1% downward revision compared to last month’s forecast predominantly due to the exclusion of subsea trees associated with Siccar Point Energy’s Cambo development offshore UK, due to Shell’s decision not to invest in the field as this time.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
Updated – 4th November, 2021
Turkey: On the 15th October, Subsea Integration Alliance (SIA), a joint venture of OneSubsea and Subsea 7, announced that they had been awarded an integrated engineering, procurement, construction and installation (iEPCI) contract from Turkish Petroleum (TPAO) for the first phase of the Sakarya subsea development in the Red Sea. The award was first announced on a redacted basis on 29th September. OneSubsea will deliver the subsea production system (SPS) and the subsea umbilical risers and flowlines (SURF), with Subsea 7 covering the installation work scope.
Norway: Shell has opted for a spar-based development at its Linnorm field, with the production facility to be connected to three or four subsea wells.
- No subsea tree awards were announced in October 2021. However, Westwood has revised the number of subsea trees recorded for September, consequently increasing year-to-date orders to 138 units from 131 units as a result of the iEPCI contract award for TPAO’s Sakarya subsea production equipment offshore Turkey.
- Westwood has revised its 2021 full-year subsea tree award to 189 units from 211 units reported in September. This is due to the anticipated delays to Subsea EPC contract award on major projects such as Siccar Point Energy’s Cambo field (UK) and LLOG’s Leon-Moccasin development (USA). Major awards still expected before the end of 2021 include CNOOC’s Lingshui 25-1 field (China) and Woodside’s Scarborough development offshore Australia.
- Our full-year, 2021-2025 subsea tree demand outlook is now at 1,476 units, approximately 39% of these are attributed to projects offshore Latin America.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
Updated – 4th October, 2021
China: In September, CNOOC launched the tender for the supply of a subsea production system for its Lingshui 25-1 field. The tender includes 12 subsea trees and three subsea manifolds to be tied back to a new wellhead platform YC13-1 PAP to be installed on CNOOC’s Yacheng 13-1 field.
Brazil: PetroRio awarded multiple services contracts for its Wahoo field during the month; however, it has postponed the scheduled contract awards for subsea equipment until October 2021.
- In September, only two subsea tree awards were recorded, closing 3Q 2021 order intake at 22 units, a 52% decrease year-on-year. Westwood has revised the number of subsea trees recorded for July, consequently increasing 2021 year-to-date awards to 131 units from the 121 units reported last month.
- Based on reported development plans, subsea tree contract awards in 4Q 2021 are estimated to total 80 units, driven by 14 projects. Of the 80 units anticipated, Westwood has classified 39 units as “Firm”, 27 units as “Probable” and 14 units as “Possible”. Major awards to watch in 4Q 2021 include Shell’s Whale (USA) which is still awaiting a formal subsea tree award announcement after the project was sanctioned back in July 2021, TPAO’s Sakarya (Turkey), CNOOC’s Lingshui 25-1 (China), Woodside’s Scarborough (Australia), and LLOG’s Leon & Moccasin project in the US GoM.
- Our full-year, 2021-2025 subsea tree demand outlook has increased from 1,457 to 1,480 units driven predominantly by ENI’s planned Baleine fast-track development offshore Ivory Coast and Harbour Energy’s Tuna project offshore Indonesia.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
Updated – 4th September, 2021
Brazil: In August, Enauta confirmed an order for a subsea tree to Schlumberger-owned subsidiary OneSubsea to be used for the fourth well at its Atlanta development.
South Africa: TotalEnergies is said to be considering an early production system (EPS) to fast track the development of its Luiperd gas condensate discovery with the use of two or three subsea trees tied back to a PetroSA-owned FA fixed platform.
- In August, subsea tree awards were relatively subdued, with only one unit recorded. We have also revised down our 2021 total order intake to reflect Petrobras’ use of existing callout capacity for its Buzios 6-9 project in lieu of “new” awards. This downward revision brings 2021 YTD subsea tree orders to 121 units – versus 138 units last month.
- Key upcoming subsea tree awards to watch for the remainder of 3Q 2021 include Shell’s Whale development in the US GoM, after the operator sanctioned the project in July 2021. Other subsea tree awards anticipated in 3Q are TPOA’s Sarkaya development (Turkey) and PetrioRio’s Wahoo development (Brazil). The Subsea tree award for Siccar Point’s Cambo development (UK) is now expected to be delayed beyond 3Q 2021 due to pending approval from the UK government against a backdrop of significant public protest.
- Our full-year, 2021-2025 subsea tree demand outlook remains unchanged at approximately 1,457 units.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
Updated – 4th August, 2021
Ghana: On the 6th of July, TechnipFMC announced the award of an integrated engineering, procurement, construction and installation (iEPCI) contract for Tullow Oil’s Jubilee South-East project. The contract will see TechnipFMC supply and install all major subsea equipment, including trees, manifolds, controls as well as flexible risers, flowlines and umbilicals.
Norway: On the 9th of July, Aker Solutions secured a contract from Aker BP to supply the subsea production system for its Kobra East Gekko development, including four horizontal subsea trees, three subsea manifolds, control systems and static umbilicals.
- In July, a total of nine subsea tree units were awarded including Aker BP’s Kobra East Gekko, Okea’s Hasselmus and Tullow Oil’s Jubilee South-East developments. This brings 2021 subsea tree order intake YTD to 138 units, accounting for 61% of total anticipated tree demand for the year.
- The key subsea tree contract award to watch for the remainder of 3Q 2021 is arguably Shell’s Whale (USA) which was sanctioned on the 26th July with the official subsea tree contract award still pending. Other anticipated awards this year include Shell’s Crux (Australia), Repsol’s Tain (UK), Siccar Point’s Cambo (UK) and TPAO’s Sakarya (Turkey). Together, these five projects will account for 37 subsea trees.
- Our full-year 2021-2025 subsea tree demand outlook is now estimated at 1,458 units, just a 1% decrease compared to last month’s forecast. This minor downtick is due to the exclusion of subsea trees associated with ENI’s Mamba phase one development as a result of ongoing security concerns in Mozambique.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
Updated – 4th July, 2021
Brazil: Equinor announced a final investment decision (FID) on its Bacalhau field on the 1st of June 2021. This confirms the award of an integrated engineering, procurement, construction & installation (iEPCI) contract to the Subsea Integration Alliance, a joint venture of OneSubsea and Subsea 7, for the supply the 19 subsea trees, associated production equipment and SURF.
Norway: Okea sanctioned its Hasselmus gas discovery on the 1st of June 2021. The field will be developed as a single-well subsea tieback to the Draugen platform.
- In June 2021, subsea tree contracts were confirmed for Equinor’s Bacalhau field, Karoon Energy’s Patola development and Petrobras’ Buzios 6-9 developments all offshore Brazil. Elsewhere, a subsea tree award for Equinor’s Lavrans development offshore Norway was also confirmed. Westwood has now recorded 128 subsea tree orders in the first half of the year, accounting for 56% of total anticipated subsea tree demand in 2021.
- Key upcoming subsea tree contract awards to watch in 3Q 2021 include Shell’s Crux (Australia) and Whale (USA), Aker BP’s Kobra East Gekko, Repsol’s Tain, Siccar Point’s Cambo (UK) and TPAO’s Sakarya (Turkey). These six projects will account for 41 subsea trees.
- Our full year 2021-2025, subsea tree demand outlook is now estimated at 1,466 which represents a 4% (49 units) increase compared to last month’s edition. This increment is mainly attributed to previously stalled projects such as Equinor’s Bay du Nord and Shell’s Bonga SWA development being added to the forecast period.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
Updated – 4th June, 2021
Brazil: Equinor announced a final investment decision (FID) on its Bacalhau field on the 1st of June 2021. This confirms the award of an integrated engineering, procurement, construction & installation (iEPCI) contract to the Subsea Integration Alliance, a joint venture of OneSubsea and Subsea 7, for the supply the 19 subsea trees, associated production equipment and SURF.
Norway: Okea sanctioned its Hasselmus gas discovery on the 1st of June 2021. The field will be developed as a single-well subsea tieback to the Draugen platform.
- No subsea tree awards were announced in May 2021. However, 2Q 2021 subsea tree order intake is still forecast to close at 50 units – a 194% increase YoY, of which Equinor’s Bacalhau (Brazil) and Okea’s Hasselmus (Norway) account for 40% of 2Q 2021 subsea tree forecast, both of which were confirmed on the 1st of June 2021.
- Key projects to watch for the remainder of 2Q 2021 include Shell’s Whale project (USA) and TPAO’s Sakarya development (Turkey), with the latter currently scheduled to start commercial gas production before the end of 2023.
- Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2021-25 period is forecast at approximately 1,328 units, a decrease of 17 units versus Westwood’s May 2021 subsea tree tracker. This reduction is primarily based on revisions to subsea tree demand for Petrobras’s Marlim Revitalisation Project.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
Updated – 4th May, 2021
Brazil: A final investment decision (FID) on Equinor’s Bacalhau field is anticipated in 2Q 2021, having already been delayed in 2020. The Norwegian operator has already issued letters of intent to its chosen contractors for all major work packages associated with the field development with the joint venture of OneSubsea and Subsea 7 awarded the integrated EPCI contract for subsea production systems and SURF, pending FID.
USA: Shell’s Whale development in the US GoM is anticipated to be sanctioned in 2Q 2021 after the project was put on hold by the operator in 2020. The field is expected to contribute more than a dozen subsea trees to 2Q 2021 order intake.
UK: In April, Ithaca Energy sanctioned its Captain Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) project in Block 13/22a of the UK Central North Sea. The project will inject polymerised water into the Captain reservoir and requires several additional subsea trees and associated infrastructure.
- 2Q 2021 subsea tree order intake is estimated at 82 units, accounting for 32% of total 2021 awards – currently forecast at 260 units. Key projects to watch in 2Q 2021 include Equinor’s Bacalhau (Brazil), Shell’s Whale (US GoM), and Total’s Lapa South West (Brazil).
- 2021 “to be awarded” subsea trees are now forecast at approximately 170 units, a 5% decline versus April’s outlook. Compared to last month, 2021 subsea tree orders categorised as “Firm” have increased by 31 to 98 units, as development plans progress and projects move closer to formal contract award. Units categorised as “Probable” now stand at 45 units vs 33 units last month, whilst units in the “Possible” category have reduced by 10 to 23 units reflecting increased confidence in our total 2021 order volume.
- Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2021-25 period is forecast at approximately 1,345 units, no change from Westwood’s April 2021 subsea tree tracker.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
Updated – 4th April, 2021
Norway: On the 25th of March, Aker Solutions was awarded the contract to supply the subsea production system for ConocoPhillips’ Eldfisk North field. The contract includes the provision of 13 standardised vertical subsea trees, wellheads, control systems and three six-slot templates with integrated manifolds.
Australia: Santos took a final investment decision (FID) on its Barossa gas field on the 30th of March 2021. EPC contract agreements were in place prior to FID, with TechnipFMC having been awarded the contract to supply the six subsea tree units in May 2019.
- 1Q 2020 subsea tree order intake closed at 87 units, including 13 units which were awarded in March 2021 to Aker Solutions under a contract for ConocoPhillips’ Eldfisk North field.
- Major contract awards previously anticipated for 1Q 2021 that could drive subsea tree demand in 2Q 2021 include Equinor’s Bacalhau (Brazil) and Ithaca Energy’s Captain EOR (UK). However, Repsol Sinopec’s Montrose Infill Program (UK) has been delayed until 2022.
- Subsea tree demand outlook for the remainder of 2021 is forecast to total 178 units, of which 67 units (37%) are classified as “Firm”, 78 units (44%) as “Probable” and 33 units (19%) classified as “Possible” based on Westwood’s assessment of subsurface, commercial & geopolitical factors.
- Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2021-25 period is forecast at approximately 1,345 units. This represents an upward revision of 4% versus last month’s outlook, driven predominantly by Turkish Petroleum’s (TPAO) Sakarya phased development plan.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
Updated – 4th March, 2021
Malaysia: On the 22nd of February, TechnipFMC announced a contract awarded from Petronas for the FEED & integrated EPCIC of the subsea production system and SURF for the Limbayong field. The workscope includes 10 subsea trees and associated tie-back infrastructure to the Limbayong FPSO.
Israel: On the 23rd of February TechnipFMC confirmed a letter of award (LOA) was issued for the integrated EPCI contract for Energean’s Karish North field.
UK: Tailwind Energy announced a final investment decision on its Evelyn single-well subsea tieback development. Baker Hughes will supply the subsea tree required for the project.
- Our subsea tree outlook for 2021 is c.240 units, of which 73 units have been awarded as of 1st March 2021. Of the remaining 170 units forecast for 2021, 74 units (44%) are classified as “Firm”, 60 units (35%) as “Probable” and 36 units (21%) are classified as “Possible” based on our assessment of subsurface, commercial & geopolitical factors.
- Major subsea tree contract awards still anticipated in 1Q 2021 include Equinor’s Bacalhau project (Brazil), Ithaca Energy’s Captain EOR (UK), as well as Repsol Sinopec’s Montrose Infill Program (UK).
- Our base-case subsea tree outlook for the 2021-25 period is forecast at approximately 1,300 units. This represents an upward revision of 6% compared to last month’s outlook driven by Total and Apache’s commitment to commence production from its Block 58 fields offshore Suriname by 2025. A revitalised Angola offshore sector driven by improved fiscal incentives and commercial terms will also contribute to the subsea tree demand outlook.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
Updated – 4th February, 2021
Brazil: Petrobras has awarded the contract to supply subsea trees for Buzios VI, VII & VIII. These units will be linked to the Almirante Tamandare, P-78 and P-79 FPSOs. Other major contract awards still anticipated in 1Q 2021 include 19 subsea tree units for Equinor’s Bacalhau project, as well as three units for PetroRio’s Frade.
Egypt: In January, Energean sanctioned the North El Amriya – North Idkunea (NEA-NI) tieback project. TechnipFMC was awarded the EPCIC contract for the development including four subsea trees and the associated SURF equipment.
- Westwood has revised its total 2020 subsea tree order intake from 153 to 170 units after official confirmation that contracts for Petrobras’ Mero III and ENI’s Agogo early production system had been awarded to OneSubsea and Baker Hughes respectively.
- Subsea tree order intake in 2021 has got off to a fast start, with January awards totalling 69 units. This is driven by the award of Petrobras’ Buzios development, Santos’ Bayu Undan Phase IIIc, Energean’s Karish North, as well as the North El Amriya fields, amongst others.
- Visible base-case subsea tree demand over the 2021-25 period is now forecast at 1,224 units (excluding units already ordered this year), averaging approximately 260 units a year. Petrobras is forecast to account for approximately 20% of global tree demand over the forecast period.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
Updated – 4th January, 2021
UK: In December, Chrysaor sanctioned the infill drilling program on the Everest East field offshore UK. The subsea development well will tie-in to an existing manifold and is due to be drilled in 3Q 2021.
Norway: On 17th December, Aker Solutions was awarded the contract to supply one subsea tree for Equinor’s Northern Lights CO2 storage project. AkerBP also took a final investment decision on the Grasel subsea development. Formal contract announcement for the two subsea trees required for the project is currently pending.
- Two subsea tree units contract awards were recorded in December 2020. This brings 2020 total subsea tree orders to close at 153 units, a 33% decline year-on-year.
- Westwood’s current subsea tree demand outlook for 2021 is forecast to total up to 224 units, based on $50/bbl Brent. Of these, 137 units (61%) are classified as “Firm”, 51 units (23%) as “Probable”, and 32 units (16%) classified as “Possible” based on our assessment of subsurface, commercial & geopolitical factors. Major projects to watch in 1Q 2021 includes Equinor’s Bacalhau (Brazil), Petrobras’ Buzios 5 (Brazil) and Ithaca Energy’s Captain EOR project (UK).
- Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2021-25 period is forecast at 1,290 units, averaging approximately 260 units a year. 43% of projected demand is in Latin America where major projects in Brazil’s pre-salt basin and in the Stabroek block offshore Guyana are expected to dominate subsea tree demand in the forecast period.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
